The Kirk Report

We Need A Strong Close

As expected, we have a choppy market with a positive bias. The beige book due out this afternoon is probably keeping both the buyers and short sellers somewhat contained as well as overall nervousness flowing from the recent shellacking. Sectors showing the most bounce include precious metals, oil & gas, iron & steel, mining, agricultural products, transportation, semiconductors, drugs, and retail.

Whether this is just another dead cat bounce is unknowable, but unless we see a very strong close, today's trading so far isn't as encouraging as I would like to see in this oversold state. I suspect that folks are currently looking for the all clear signal to be sounded off and are currently debating whether the "bad news is already priced in" is good enough for that signal.

Stocks I'm watching on my trading radar include XING, SMSI, OMNI, LIHRY, SWN, VICL, JOBS, NXG, HSR, LMIA, and ABB. As always, I hope you're having a great day.

My Trading Radar

The sell in May and go away seems to be the one theme we can count on. Yesterday's intraday reversal and the poor timing of the Vonage IPO has spooked some and perhaps everyone is already in holiday mode.

Fear over tomorrow's GDP is also holding the buyers back a bit. In addition, weakness in precious metals - everyone's favorite sector - is keeping the buyers away from making aggressive trades. Meanwhile, stocks on my trading radar include NVAX, BCRX, GILD, XTXI, MED, HAST, VICL, PSS, PEIX, STMP, Q, NVTL, SGMO, ANGO, NVTL, FNET, ANST, BOOM, IIIN, BG, and NEU.

The indicators clearly suggest it is time to buy at least for a trade and my game plan is to hold my nose and scale back in. The herd is selling on strength because they have little choice given their current underwater stance and buy-the-dip mentality that hasn't been fruitful. The upcoming holiday, as I've said before, has also presented a situation where folks are simply walking away until after the weekend. In my view, that presents an opportunity for those who can accept the risk and short-term pain over the next couple of weeks. Most likely we're going to see a fair share of back and forth trading in the short-term until the herd figures out what to do next.

To be absolutely clear - the risk versus reward for trading on the long side is finally back in our favor. This is the reverse mindset of the herd at the moment and I think it is the correct one given where we are and how far we've come in such a short period of time. As always, you'll need to make up your own mind and trade accordingly.

At The Trading Desk

I haven't been this busy trading for awhile, which is indeed a nice change of pace. I have a few trades on OVTI, STXN, FNET, & FNSR and I'm working on a few others. I also had to cover my losing short in the GLD again. Discipline must always trump conviction.

Everyone is focused on the retailers this morning and my screens continue to point to the same companies - CWTR, DBRN, CTRN, & ZUMZ. Perhaps we'll see consumer weakness going forward with higher interest rates and oil prices, but so far that has been a losing trade. Americans are in the habit of spending everything they make and that simply isn't going to change overnight without some major catalysts. For now, the pot continues to slowly boil.

My Trading Radar

The bulls are catching their breath, but the general mood is if you can't get'em down by noon, then we might as well take'em higher.

Overall, it remains a quiet trading day which offers a nice change of pace. Even the sectors that are performing quite well out there are relatively ho-hum.

I've been catching up on my reading this morning (no new trades) and I'll have a post later that will share a few of my favorites. Stocks on my radar this morning include IRIS, QDEL, MFLX, VPHM, CUTR, CMED, IIJI, & PWAV.

My Trading Radar

Are the fears overblown? That seems the question of the hour as the tape attempts to find some level of support.

Stocks on my trading radar this morning include PQUE, NGAS, RGLD, IMDC, SWIR, TOMO, IPII, ABIX, NTES, NSSC, FUEL, ECA, & VLO. I'm currently sitting on my hands and trying my best to be patient.

Since everything is on auto-pilot at the moment, I'm going to take off, run some overdue errands, and perhaps stop by the golf range for a little practice. I've have a charity golf tournament next weekend and I haven't even held a golf club in September. Come to think of it, with all of the palpable tension in the market, spending some time on the golf course sounds like perfect trade to me.

See you after the market close! :)

Tilting The Odds

• Bush considers tapping emergency stockpiles of oil


• What politicians won't tell you about future oil prices


• "By early November, when that first heating bill has to be paid, we will see how much resolve that mid-upper-income market is going to have." - Marshal Cohen


• Traders should continue to focus on the alternative energy plays


• August has been filled with long periods of inactivity punctuated by a flurry of activity


• Money inflows remain relatively unimpressive


• How much cash on the sidelines is really there to pump up stocks?


• Six tips for putting idle cash to better use


• Odds of a December Fed rate hike are back below 50%?


• "The harder you work, the luckier you get." - Gary Player


• 50 stocks that currently have the highest Stock Scouter technicals rating


• Newsletters tout tech at Washington conference


• Don't take your long-range plans too seriously because you can't control the future. Life is full of surprises!


• Measuring the economy may not be as simple as 1, 2, 3


• Every Monday morning, I read Thomson's Market Week


• A bad August. A worse September?


• Dumping of US dollar could trigger economic September 11


• Eonomists are starting to bite their nails over the nomination of the new Federal Reserve chairman


• Can Google win over the markets as it loses friends?


• Google will overtake Microsoft?


• WiMax: wireless pie in sky or the next tech revolution?


• A hedge fund falls off the face of the earth


• Did you know that Australian real estate is the most expensive in the world?


• The return to normal housing prices could be as painful at the Great Texas Real Estate Crash


• Why most real-estate agents aren't getting rich


• Independent strategic consulting firm, Oxford Analytica, finds that income inequality in America threatens future growth


• AllThingsFinancial hosts the Carnival of Personal Finance


• Chuck Jaffe's stupid investment of the week


• After the nation's big investment banks agreed to pay $1.4 billion to regulators to settle conflict-of-interest charges, the settlement money has not made its way into the hands of jilted shareholders. And most of it never will


• Buying companies with excess cash flow is the best defensive maneuver against financial risk


• The U.S. drug industry is under unprecedented assault


• Encouraging employees not to participate in the company's healthcare plan is a growing trend among small businesses


• A penny saved, is a penny earned


• Aging baby boomers outpace trained doctors


• Tips for designing a safe and comfortable workstation


• 10 steps for a good ergonomic workstation arrangement


• How ergonomically sound is your workspace?


• Lessons from the Stock Market Samurai


• Some interesting thoughts regarding trading journals


• Pluck is my favorite new RSS reader


• This week's vital signs


• "A man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight." - Jesse Livermore

Bulls Hold The Line

The bulls are trying to put up a fight and managed to push us into positive territory, no doubt on the backs of those who went short at the open. The action is focused on the energy sector.

Some notable standout movers include ABIX, ZIGO, GLBL, ASVI, REDF, ENER, OSTE, BDCO, CPST, IPII, BSTE, JOYG, ABLE, SYNM, & GEOI. I'm sitting on my hands and doing very little.

My Trading Radar

Premarket futures are still negative following the initial jobless claims which came in higher than expected (316K versus consensus of 310K). Premarket movers of interest include MYOG, ARRY, RITA, SMRT, MNTA, BCON, DSTI, SOHU, IDNX, SNPS, PXLW, BIDU, GNLB, IDNX, GNTA, & NXXI. I suspect we're in for a volatile trading day. Have a good one!

An Uphill Battle

We're jumping around following the oil and gas inventories report, and while the bulls seem to be trying to work us up higher, it seems like an uphill battle.

We have a few movers out there (REDF, NWD, BCSI, ARXX, CPTH, ALOT, CTTY, CHRS, SNSTA) but nothing I find overwhelming compelling. So, I'm taking this opportunity to study some home office designs as well as shop for a new trading desk and computer.

Although I've had good intentions to get my home office done by Labor Day, unforeseen delays and challenges have prevented me from making substantial progress. So, today looks like a good time to spend working on this goal, at least for a little while. And, as previously promised, once my home office and trading setup is complete, I will share photos right here at the website.

How Crude

With crude climbing to new record highs upon terror alerts in Saudi Arabia, the tape is struggling outside of the energy space. The same defensive mood we saw late last week continues.

Other than Baidu (BIDU), stocks coming up in my screens include MVCO, VTIV, BCON, CPST, LABS, HOMS, CNXS, CPTV, ATPG, NFLX, TALX, MCEL, POSS, & EZPW. As typical with Greenspan-focused weeks, this Monday may be one to take a pass on. Even BIDU hasn't impressed me very much following Friday's fun.

My Trading Radar

The sellers are overwhelming the tape as the negative tone from yesterday continues. Beyond materials, airlines, and some biotech, not much is working higher as traders opt to take a defensive stance.

Clearly, the strong jobs report confirms we're going to hear the same old story from Greenspan next week (i.e. higher interest rates) and yesterday's disappointing retail sales are still playing a negative role. Still, the day isn't over.

Stocks on my radar this Friday morning include ASEI, CPTV, NOV, CNTF, BCON, FTO, CDR, NPLA, AMRI, BOOM, PDLI, PRVD, NTES, PRVT, SNDA, MON, HOS, QSII, TEX, GRMN, MUR, & TFSM. I'm still waiting for some stabilization (or at least significantly lower prices) before making any move. Where's Baidu.com (BIDU) when you need it?

My Trading Radar

We've got the typical Monday morning pop. Now, do we drop? Probably not, but then again, it wouldn't shock me in the least if the highs of the day have or will shortly be put in.

In the early going, buyers are focus on gaming, airline, chemicals, steel, chips, and gold. Stocks I'm tracking & watching here include SNMX, VPHM, GIGM, MDKI, IPII, CPTS, NMTI, ANGO, HELX, JMDT, FORD, POWL, DSTI, IMGC, NETL, INPC, DCAI, KNDL, FOXH, KOMG, DIGE, EENC, MVL, & BEBE.

Too Thin For Me

I've seen thin tapes before, but this one really takes the cake. I think I could even move a big cap stock with a buy order!

While there are a few notable movers out there (i.e. PANL, RHAT, NTMD, SOLD, DLLR, IPIX, BHIP, CHRD), I'm taking a pass. :(

My Trading Radar

While the performance of the major market averages may not be impressive at first glance, there is some notable strength below the surface.

So far, buyers are focused on biotech, retail, energy, precious metals, tech, materials, and airline stocks. For what it is worth, MPET, CONN, ICST, EQIX, BCO, JMDT, CNQ, WPTE, FORD, SNY, PRGS, AUO, NYER, LSCP, ASFI, SHLD, OTIV, SYNM, FOXH, & IVAN are some of the stocks I'm watching this morning.

The Tape

The tape is moving like it has boots made out of concrete this morning, although it is slowing starting to pick up. As you probably already know by now, a few traders are trying to grind it out in stocks like EMRG, DSTI, ABLE, SNHY, CKCM, GIGM, TASR, DFIB, IIJI, GEOI, NETL, PARL, ANGO & VCLK.

We have another options expiration this Friday, which many of you already know what that means - I'll be doing another Q&A with members. This time it's going to be another "stock-only" Q&A which I'm already looking very much forward to. Members should read today's trading notes (published after the closing bell) for details on how to submit their question.

My Trading Radar

I'm not trading this strength primarily because I think there will be some hesitancy among the rank and file ahead of Greenspeak tomorrow. Typical pension inflows on the first are also playing a role, I believe.

However, along with all of the positive movement so far, my screens are starting to turn up more candidates (perhaps more than I've seen in a month). Stocks showing up at the top of my watch list include MCRS, PRLS, LCAV, NDAQ, WOOF, EGHT, PWAV, ELN, SFNT, SRDX, CAKE, WOLF, MYGN, USFC, IIIN, & FXEN.

And, yes, it also happens to me. After getting stopped out Friday morning, a nice little rally has ensued as I previously thought. This wasn't the first time this has happened, nor will be the last. It just comes with the territory when trading. The key is to avoiding trading on tilt (i.e. make rash trades in an effort to catch up) or let it take away your confidence. Discipline always trumps conviction.

My Trading Radar

A strong start to a brand new week is underway. Stocks on my trading radar this a.m. include PCO, XXIA, UBET, NDAQ, ISRG, FORD, TSO, FTO, AMHC, SGDE, HANS, ENER, ALTI, ASTE, LUFK, & PTMK. The only notable weak area in the early going are the safety drug stocks.

I received lots of positive feedback concerning last Friday's Q&A. I'm very glad many of you found it very helpful, informative, and educational. The stock-only Q&A is something I plan on doing again!

My Trading Radar

"If it looks like a bear, and smells likes a bear, and acts like a bear, then it is a bear." That's one comment I received in an email from a smart reader this morning. I've been receiving a number of those kind of emails lately, for what it is worth.

I'm doing my best to stay out of this nasty battle, even though it sure isn't easy. Recently I've tried to do more than rent a stock for a few hours, and once again I pay the price for doing so. I had to bail on every position currently owned in my trading portfolio this morning as my stops were hit. As I've commented before, I'm tired of grinding out profits in short-term roundtrip daytrades, but Mr. Market is under no obligation to bend to my will. So, once again I learn the lesson - if you've been lucky to see any profit in this tape, don't waste time taking it because it won't last long.

Stocks on my trading radar this morning include ORCT, LANV, LCRD, NICE, MOSS, UGI, CLCT, GGR, USG, MDR, STEM, CIG, BXG, IPMT, INFY, CUNO, LEXR, & WYNN. But, like yesterday, unless something new and interesting pops up, I'm happy being on the sidelines.

My Trading Radar

Nice start despite the revelation of new "accounting problems" at Fannie Mae (FNM). What a big shocker!

I'm trading three stocks this morning - Nyer Medical (NYER), Forward Industries (FORD), & Knot (KNOT). All with very tight stops, which is taking my full attention. Other stocks on my radar include VEXP, ISRG, CREE, RTSX, ZOLL, CWCO, PFCB, & LCRD. Now let's see what the oil inventory report has to say.

My Trading Radar

We bolted from the opening gates, but fell in a mudhole following some stronger economic data. As a nice April Fool's prank, the ISM Services data was released early.

Stocks on my trader radar include HRT, SYNM, BDOG, SIMC, INFT, TRGL, EMIS, CRZO, BDCO, ANTP, INPC, SHLD, & HANS. I have two positions on my plate - HRT & SYNM. See yesterday's posts for more info.

No Middle Road Here

The consumer confidence report wasn't as bad as previously feared, so that's helping us to stay positive so far. Of course, window dressing is also playing a significant role.

Buyers are focused on healthcare providers, energy, materials, brokers, & homebuilders. While I haven't made any trades, stocks on my radar this morning include NVEC, LPNT, HCTL, SONO, LANV, HSTM, TRI, MCEL, COGT, BITS, UNH, WOOF, NFLX, NGRU, DOC, LUB, PACT, RMCF, SVNX, & LCAV.

The last thing this market needs is a small rally as it only works off this oversold condition. There is no middle road. This is one of those times that if you're bullish you want to see either a big high-volume reversal rally, or another washout decline. This kind of rally smells like we're only working off an oversold tape before moving lower again. Ugh!

My Trading Radar & More

• Stocks on my trading radar this fine Monday morning include: ANTP, IMMR, ATEA, SHOE, MOVI, BKST, STAR, CMTL, PRGS, XTND, LACO, ELTK, SNHY, VMSI, SVNX, DAVE, NGPS, CULS, NFLX, & SYBR


• U.S. diversified stock funds have fallen an average of -3% in the first quarter


• Louisiana Pacific (LPX), American Power Conversion (APCC) Applera (ABI), Hasbro (HAS), Best Buy (BBY), Gap (GPS) & J.C. Penney (JCP) are considered cash kings


• The Kuwaiti Finance Ministry said total revenues in the first 11 months of the their fiscal year reached $27.1 billion versus the $11.25 billion they expected for the entire year


• Trading tip: by the time a trade becomes obvious, the window of opportunity has already closed


• Investigation of insurance puts Buffett in a spotlight


• The IRS gets ready to go after slices of eBay sellers’ pie


• Time to buy tech? Assets in Rydex technology funds are lower than they were at the fall low last year, and nearly as low as the August low


• Any tech company that turns down instant riches from Cisco Systems, is a company worth watching


• In 2004, companies and governments invested $8.6 billion in nanotechnology research and development, up 10% from 2003


• According to Mark Hulbert, Pfizer (PFE) is currently recommended by no fewer than 20 of 180 monitored newsletters


• BusinessWeek's Top 50 has Nucor (NUE) as the top gun


• Soaring prices put shine on U.S. uranium


• The Weekly Leading Index continues to rise pointing to an economic outlook that is brightening gradually


• Where are the bulls? The AAII sentiment survey just reported the lowest percentage of bullish respondents since February 2003


• Is Silicon Valley similar to Detroit?


• Good times for business as Republicans take charge?


• It's a thin tape out there this morning, so be careful


• Standard & Poor's goes hunting for 5 STAR stocks with low price-earnings ratios


• PBS ends Wall Street Week after 35 years! Too bad! I liked both the old and new show as many of you know


• Another trading tip: don't place stops at common focus points such as near trendlines or round numbers. They're easy to hit, especially before price jumps in the other direction


• Is the U.S. dollar already beyond the point of no return?


• Barry Diller continues his search for the ultimate online experience


• If I only had a hedge fund!


• Amazon.com knows who you are


• The historical data shows that over the long term, roll-ups in the banking industry are doomed


• Sage advice from Jim Cramer in his new book which you can preview for free


• With +60 degrees expected this afternoon in Minnesota, don't think for a second I haven't thought about dusting off the old golf clubs this afternoon


• M&A activity in 2005 has been strong, but surprisingly not as strong as many expected


• Job searchers to get new Internet search tools


• My new friend from New Zealand reminds me there is no capital gains tax there. A nice reminder as I sit down to send another big check to the IRS


• Top 50 stocks under $20 that are most likely to go up in the next week


• Beware of Friday! Here are 13 great April Fools' pranks


• "Problems are only opportunities in work clothes." - Henry Kaiser

My Trading Radar

A nice start is currently underway as the underlying dynamics are looking good so far. Unfortunately, the tape feels like most of the market elephants have begun their holiday a day early.

No trades so far, even though I'm on the hunt. ANTP, GOAM, GRU, BOOM, FRNT, LNOP, CYTO, SVNX, XRTX, OATS, CHTT, GAP, ALDN, LCAV, INPC, CMTL, GSOL, IRIS, & WDC are all at the top of my radar.

My Trading Radar

As expected, we've got a choppy environment, but I'm sure the bottom-feeders are somewhat reassured by the relatively flat-lined tape and strength in technology. The chatter is that a little hotter than expected CPI had already been priced in. Energy, brokers, REITs, and utilities are under pressure while chips, airlines, software, and insurance are seeing a little buying.

Like yesterday, I'm playing with fire in Eltek (ELTK), but doing little else. Beyond this over-hyped runner, the other stocks on my trading radar include WSCI, BOSC, AIRT, XMSR, YELL, RTSX, ELOS, DNT, RNOW, SQNM, BOOM, OLAB, ATPL, GIGA, INTV, SNHY, IRIS, SHOE, EYET, SRZ, GME, & IPMT.

As you probably could expect, my posts are going to be on the light side, as my eyes remain glued to my trading screens.

Post Expiration Havoc

Lots of interesting movement out there as post options expiration wreaks havoc on the tape and crude continues to be quite rude. In 6 of the past 7 years, the S&P has been negative the day after a March option expiration, with an average return of -0.64%. So far the tape looks like it is going to follow that trend with the Nasdaq falling below 2K and the Dow now down +50 points.

I'm very much like a deer caught in headlights as I try to pin point something worthy of a trade. At the moment, USEG, ABLE, ATHR, GRU, ELOS, CRAI, TSRA, ORCT, SHOP, NDAQ, DDDC, RNAI, ABLE, MOVI, NSI, INSP, RVI, SMSI, TRY, & CMTL are at the top of my trading radar.

Circle The Wagons

After a downside test, the bulls are trying to circle the wagons. The focus of the buyers so far is concentrated in energy (surprise!), semiconductors, steel, internet, utility, & networking stocks. I've made no trades so far, although my watch lists are full. Stocks at the top of my radar this a.m. include BDCO, ABLE, RETK, GEOI, ASTE, SBLK, SHOE, DRIV, ABRI, AMLN, ENTG, PRGS, ROIA, & BOOM.

My Trading Radar & More

• Stocks on my trading radar this morning include KERX, RIMM, ARTC, SIGM, SNIC, ASTE, USAK, OPNT, CVNS, & NSYS


• Greenspan vs. Buffett? Like Jim Jubak, my money is on Buffett


• Ike Iossif and his technical view of the market


• If eBay's CEO Meg Whitman left, who'd replace her?


• The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey finds the number of bulls have slightly decreased to 54.5% vs 55.7% last week and those who are bearish significantly increased to 24.3% vs 21.6%.


• First Call estimates that S&P 500 earnings growth in the first quarter will come to +7.3%


• Like many others, Eric Miller sees dramatic consequences from China's growth


• Danielle DiMartino studies debt, with interest


• In my experience, many times the difference between a successful trade and an unsuccessful one is whether there is an increase in volume along with a specific technical setup (i.e. chart breakout). Try to visualize volume as the wind - it needs to be behind you (moving up when the stock makes a key move), instead of against you (flat or declining volume). It is always a good policy to have both the market and the wind (volume) on your side


• Where there is a way, Wal-Mart will usually find a way


• CEOs are chasing each other's pay


• The ECRI starts a new Chinese Leading Index


• Desperate times for oil call for desperate measures?


• 10 reasons why the Nasdaq won't recover soon


• Britain shows the perils of a private pension system


• Like usual, the small investors in hedge funds finds themselves at a severe disadvantage


• "There is nothing new in the the world except the history you don't know." - Harry S. Truman

My Trading Radar & More

• Love fills the air as the shorts stay nervous. Stocks on my radar include ESLR, ABLE, WIND, ANPI, DSTI, ISON, BJ, GRU, COSI, EVST, MTSL, TACX, DEPO, SGH, SNDS, GTOP, COGT, BIIB, LOJN, TKLC, XMSR, PSS, & LEV


• John Dorfman issues a warning regarding stocks that sell for more than 100 times revenue


• When it comes to investing, you can indeed be too happy


• "Plan the trade and trade the plan" is common advice, but good traders always have a Plan B


• Timely factoid: short interest on the Nasdaq has risen by over one billion shares since July 2002


• With it recent gains and nifty ticker symbol, Dynamic Materials (BOOM) has captured nearly everyone's interest


• First day of the month bias? On March 1st, the market closes higher 63% of the time


• Former Fed chief Volcker issues a warning regarding huge imbalances and risks


• Q&A with Reed Hastings, founder and CEO of Netflix (NFLX)


• You know commodities are hot when traders start listening to the few analysts that cover them. This morning RBC raised its commodity price forecast saying bullish things about zinc, nickel, copper, & aluminum


• ISM Index comes in at 55.3 vs 57.0 consensus


• Another new month? It must be time to read Roy Weitz's Fund Alarm


• Bill Gross and his March 2005 investment outlook


• Live by the sword, die by the sword. Interchange (INCX) blows up after providing a much slower outlook


• After predicting that the "shorts would be crushed," Robert Toll of Toll Brothers (TOLL) continues to ring the cash register by selling thousands of shares


• World population to hit 9 billion by 2050


• Tobin Smith climbs his tree house to look at the big picture


• S&P warns of multiple, simultaneous airline bankruptcies


• Move over tech stocks! Titanium Metals (TIE) is the type of stock that the hot money is focused on now


• Yahoo makes a big bet on media


• I agree with all but 2 of the 10 rules IBD recommends for managing your portfolio. As you know, I do not recommend using margin. In addition, setting price targets relative to p/e ratios makes absolutely no sense


• Auto dealers consider trimming their inventories


• Trading tip: many don't feel the market should be going up. But if you're a trader, don't ever confuse what you think should happen with what actually is happening. If the market wants to go up, then your job isn't to argue. It's to find a way to make money.


• Sony exits the PDA business


• Don't laugh - the savings account is back! And, if yesterday's data is correct - American's savings are now higher


• "Time is the enemy of the poor business and the friend of the great business. If you have a business that's earning 20%-25% on equity, time is your friend. But time is your enemy if your money is in a low return business." - Warren Buffett

My Trading Radar

A mirror repeat of yesterday with another chopping morning followed by an end-of-the-day surge? That's the chatter around the campfire this a.m. Still, I'm finding little to trade in the early-going, so I'll probably spend a few hours running stock screens while monitoring my intraday scans for any potential upside runners.

Stock's on my watch list at the moment include HAXS, BOOM, MBRX, SCHN, MANT, ORCI, WPPGY, TTES, VAS, USEG, MCX, SABA, FTHR, GW, NIKU, JMDT, XXIA, EMITF, KGC, IFOX, CULS, & APPX.

My Trading Radar

Tough tape so far, but be on the alert for a snapper or two.

Stocks at the top of my radar include NSI, DECK, WSTM, LCAV, EDGR, RIO, STNR, SNSA, ANIK, JOYG, BUCY, HDL, HAXS, BRLC, MINI, CULS, & SCMM. We should get a much better feel once the first 60 minutes is behind us.

My Trading Radar & More

• Stocks on my trading radar this morning include RGLD, RIO, CRYP, PRFT, BOOM, VCI, UTHR, JAKK, EENC, INNO, USPI, PMTI, CTIC, KMG, TWGP, TZOO, CHCI, TGA, DVIDD, & ATLS


• Falling dollar? Blame Bank of Korea which plans to diversify their reserves


• Consumer confidence for February came in at 104 vs. 103 expected. But, as traders, should we really care? A study finds that consumer confidence data is useless


• Several market gurus see opportunities overseas


• Not surprising, a large number of executives put their own interests first


• Novartis (NVS) buys generic-drug makers Hexal and Eon Labs (ELAB) for $8.3 billion in cash. In my view, NVS got a pretty darn good deal


• If you love bonds, then this report is going to be right up your alley


• DeVry (DV), Lear (LEA), and Micrel (MCRL) are just three of ten stocks in Morningstar's contrarian portfolio


• I don't know about you, but if I had millions in my pocket, I'm not sure I'd be that motivated to go to work every day


• George Soros talks about the relationship between the dollar and the price of oil


• Trading tip: if you've seen your share of losses in 2005, just remember, you can treat today as a brand new start. While we can and should learn from our past mistakes, the key is to not dwell on them. Trading is an imperfect science and you're going to make lots of mistakes. The goal, of course, is to make more good trades than bad ones and you can't do that if negative thought patterns dominate your mood


• My commute is about 10 steps from my bedroom to my trading desk. I couldn't function well if I had to travel to work for three hours per day


• ThinkEquity, a boutique investment bank, goes blogging


• Under Dow Theory, closes above the December highs of 10,854.54 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 3811.62 in the Dow Jones Transportation Average would be necessary to reconfirm the bullish primary trend


• I don't pay attention to valuation arguments, but for those who do, this report from Charting The Economy is a worthwhile read


• You know poker is hot when dog paintings are in such high demand


• ETFs are giving mutual funds a serious run for their money


• As an astute observer of the obvious, I'd have to say the precious metal stocks are acting quite well


• A layman's guide to a Q&A with Alan Greenspan


• Bush talks tough about Russia


• "It is what we think we know already that often prevents us from learning." - Claude Bernard

My Trading Radar & More

• As the rank and file digest Greenspeak, the tape is fairly choppy after this morning's false start. But so far it is holding up better than I expected


• Stocks under notable accumulation so far include HURC, INCX, FCEL, ITRI, BEAV, WTFC, INTL, PLAB, MCRI, BBOX, PSPT, SNDS, AQNT, LOJN, REXI, PTEN, BHS, ADAM, EP, RIG, & BRC


• Jim Puplava questions whether inflation is as "well contained" as government officials would like for us to all believe


• Alan Farley interviews an accounting expert about trader tax status


• Japan's GDP shrank once again signalling another recession


• Interesting observations by Brett Steenbarger concerning how successful traders process information


• I sure wish I could figure out a consistent strategy to profit from some of these daily Audible-like (ADBL) blowups


• Merrill Lynch speculates on a potential Sony-Apple partnership


• PIMCO's Commodity RealReturn is seen by many as the best way to play the rise in commodities


• Once again, we have more bulls. The weekly Investors Intelligence figures show a rise in bulls from 54.6% to 56.6% while bears declined from 23.2% to 21.2%


• As Barron's reports, insiders in the healthcare industry are showing exceptional insider selling activity


• China has a proven track record of over-investing


• Are Americans successful because they're crazy? That's the thesis of a new book


• $1 million dollars for a mobile home?


• As an investor, your basic objective should be to profit from change. The art of investing is being able to recognize change early and to adjust your investment positions accordingly


• Telecom is getting another behemoth


• For what it is worth, last night my wife and I had a consultation on window treatments for our home. As usual, I asked how business has been lately. The consultant told us that she has seen a significant slowdown in business and that her home builder contacts have expressed new concern over the homebuilding market in general


• Gartner warns of PC shipment slowdown - +9% in 2005 down from +11.6% last year


• For portfolio managers, it is often better to be sorry for what you didn’t do than for what you did do


• A shakedown in the hedge fund community is predicted


• Predicting the future is extremely difficult. Of course, that still doesn't stop some scientists from trying


• "Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself." - Leo Tolstoy

A Very Busy Morning

• Busy morning so far as I just purchased shares of GRU, BOOT, & NMTI. Other stocks on my radar this morning include ADAM, ANSS, AVM, BLTI, BOOM, BRN, CCJ, CYCL, ERES, FOXH, HYDL, IDSY, ILOG, ISLE, LSS, MFLX, REXI, RTWI, SGU, VLCCF, & XXIA


• Paul Kasriel tries to time the fed and predicts that interest rates will stop going up in the second half of 2005


• Marc Faber recommends that investors maintain low leverage, small positions and continue to bet on some further recovery in the U.S. dollar


• Perhaps this is why Buffett is bullish on Comcast (CMCSA)


• John Dorfman finds value stocks with price momentum


• One free tool if you're looking for monthly short interest data for Nasdaq stocks


• Jeffrey Saut believes the buying stampede that began on January 28th is at least half-way over


• "It requires wisdom to understand wisdom - the music is nothing if the audience is deaf." - Walter Lippman


• Trading successfully over the long-term requires strict self-discipline. I know from personal experience that it is easy to make money trading stocks for short periods of time, but Mr. Market will sooner or later take back every single penny unless you utilize sound risk-management


• Everyone is talking about the second coming of Intermix (MIX)


• Like Hussman, I always pay attention when investors think this time is different


• In the "it doesn't matter, until it matters" department, Danielle DiMartino points out how vulnerable U.S. households are to a bump in the road


• Anti-virus software for our cars?


• Was she really worth it? Carly's total take in cash and stock for +5 years running HPQ was $188.6 million. Nevertheless, Michael Hiltzik asks why HP is still in the PC business?


• What is your investing temperament?


• Greenspan is likely to talk tomorrow about social security reform and deficit reduction


• "As long as the mind can envision the fact that you can do something, you can do it...as long as you really believe." - Arnold Schwarzenegger

My Trading Radar & More

• Lots of stocks on my trading radar this morning. The daily roundup includes ENCY, KNDL, SNSTA, DSCO, ARBA, CMCO, MVCO, BRN, SWN, PWR, SNSTA, ENCY, ATLS, DDDC, PQUE, AMXC, MRVL, TSRA, AMAC, REXI, NTAP, WOLF, PHLY, TMWD, ISLE, UPL, CMTL, RCKY, COGT, IBN, KND, WIN, PACR, IPS, TRMS, & XIDE


• Sir John Templeton urges caution despite being positive about the long-term


• Warren Buffett's business partner, Charles Munger, has a lot of interesting things to say


• Hewlett Packard's acting chief tries to calm nerves over Fiorina's resignation


• No signs of weakness in the consumer area - Wal-Mart (WMT) said its February sales will be in-line with +2% to +4% growth


• China promises to at least try to persuade North Korea to return to six-party talks on dismantling its nuclear weapons, while the U.S. is devising its own plan


• ThinkingBull names The Kirk Report as one of their websites of the week


• Upon visiting Ethiopia, money manager Whitney Tilson ultimately discovers how lucky we are to live in the richest country in the world


• General Motors (GM) pays Fiat nearly $2 billion to break up their alliance. Following this news, I'm sure value-focused investors will be giving GM a closer look as it current trades near its 52-week low


• $1,650,000 for your very own private island?


• Let the buyer beware when investing in hedge funds and the main trouble with hedge fund indexes


• Wind power is becoming a better bargain


• Applied Materials (AMAT) is going to be one stock to watch as the chip equipment firm reports tomorrow after the closing bell


• Trading tip: swim with the whales and avoid the sharks. Traders like us are the littlest fish in the vast sea. Take cover whenever predators appear, feed with one eye open, and stay away from battleground stocks. After all, we are some of the few market participants that are actually trading with our own money on the line. That alone creates a significant disadvantage in terms of emotion and bias.


• Congress backs major shift to electronic IDs


• Major resistance is still at the December highs at Dow 10,854 and S&P 1,214


• Stronger signals at Motorola (MOT)


• Determined investors are finding ways to profit from the airline industry


• "It's not so simple as being contrary for contrary's sake. Instead, it's knowing that, as often as not, conventional wisdom is wrong." - Susan C. Walker


• A bubble in keyword advertising?


• Ken Fisher expects stocks to be up 25% this year and outlines four ways to enjoy the bull market


• Many seem to think that Alan Greenspan's visit with Congress Wednesday is the largest near-term catalyst


• A long, but interesting study concerning the stock market's reaction to earnings news


• In case you haven't heard, 177 million Google (GOOG) shares come out of lockup today


• Joe Granville predicts another market collapse


• If you want to be happy, don't get rich. Get married!


• "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

My Trading Radar

No followup? Yesterday's rally was one of the more feeble in recent memory and today's lack of meaningful followup is less than impressive. Out of the gate, big sellers can be found in the homebuilders, airlines, chips, energy, retail, and computers. Healthcare is the only sector catching a bid. Stocks on my radar this a.m. include ALTI, KND, NVTL, SYNC, MDCC, WPTE, MRVC, DATA, ARRS, EZPW, MKSI, CTSH, & ITMN.

More Of The Same, I'm Afriad

• Golf anyone? I'm sure I should be finding good trades, but I'm being very selective. Stocks I'm tracking this morning include AXYS, PMTI, RGLD, WFMI, CASA, AUGT, CTSH, HCA, MNKD, RTEC, ISON, NFX, EMITF, ELSE, AIRN, DSTI, INNO, & BYD


• There's very little doubt that Dell continues to squeeze the competition


• Financial blogs teach money management? Thank you for the interview Neville!


• Forbes visits The World Money Show and among many things, finds very little interest in gold stocks


• In weaker markets, take smaller gains & hopefully smaller losses


• Ratings for every major Canadian stock


• Despite numerous recent warnings from Rice & Dubya, Iran says it will NEVER give up its nuclear technology


• Did you know the average lifespan of a small business is about eight and a half years?


• I wish someone would pay me $21 million to walk away like the board did with Carly Fiorina


• Is the SEC going soft once again?


• "If you can count your money, you don't have a billion dollars." - J. Paul Getty


• I do my banking online, but like many others, I do worry about security risks


• In my home office, I have a picture of a lion with the following quote - "Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed. Every morning a lion wakes up. It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death. It doesn't matter if you are a lion or a gazelle. When the sun comes up, you better be running."


• John Dorfman takes a look at a few of the big stock winners and losers


• Move over Wal-Mart (WMT), here comes Sears Essentials


• I really think someday we'll see simultaneous movie and DVD release, but it probably won't happen anytime soon


• Mea culpa - looks like my selection of Synaptics (SYNA) to the 2005 winners portfolio was the definition of a bad call. Yowza!


• Acquisition-minded banks tend to provide tepid performance


• It's only your money at risk and at the end of the day, the only opinion that counts is the one you use to make the trade. As I've said before, I've never found a successful trader who blindly takes advice from newsletters and websites.


• Bet on baby boomers?


• The reason so many people like Karmazin, the CEO of Sirius (SIRI), is that he's a deal maker


• Déjà vu? We we're sitting at these same levels in the Dow this time last year. What are the chances we'll be at these same levels a few years from now?


• Coin collectors go crazy over the new Wisconsin quarter


• Hedge funds start 2005 on the wrong foot


• Motorola (MOT) buys Lucent (LU)? Apple (APPL) buys Sirius (SIRI)? These are just two of the latest hot rumors floating around this week


• Here's the right way to put a price tag on your donations for tax purposes


• Money magazine picks the best car values for 2005


• "The key in life is to figure out who to be the bat boy for." - Warren Buffett

My Trading Radar & More

• Stocks on my radar this a.m. include GRU, RNWK, TMWD, ENER, IBIS, NIKU, IMAX, CHUX, DOC, CTMI, ICUI, ELAB, ANTP, HLIT, DCAI, ANGO, MICU, DIOD, XRTX, OLAB, DSTI, CRZO, NMTI, ORCT, CMCO, BCSI, TIN, & EZPW


• Surprise, surprise! The elephants actually admit that they rely on various momentum factors to time their buy and sell decisions


• Contrary to conventional wisdom, the market has performed best during quarters when earnings are as much as 25% below year-earlier levels


• Wall Street is rife with speculation that various media companies are on the hunt to acquire video game makers


• Once again, it is time to take a look at the Super Bowl ads


• Buyers are focused on airlines, energy, chips, drugs, retail, & the homebuilders


• Even more Greenspeak!


• Individual investors were not the only ones refusing to buy stocks in January. In fact, insider purchases of company stock hit the lowest point in nearly 12 years last month


• Yet another Wall Street investigation


• Both customers and businesses find they actually like the new bans on smoking


• Will U.S. farmers get the budget ax?


• Yes, buybacks are good. The 233 stocks which announced buybacks in 2004 outperformed the S&P 500 by a statistically significant 2.5% while stocks announcing buybacks in 2002 and 2003 have outperformed the S&P by 15.9% and 9.7% since inception respectively.


• More supply coming in gold? Apparently, the IMF is considering selling its gold to finance debt relief for poor countries


• Nanotech-mania continues as reports surface that it was "standing room only" at the 4th Annual Nanotech Investing Forum


• Providing proper disclosure to investors isn't the cure-all some expected


• Now that inflation is dead, the markets will have to find something else to worry about in the coming week


• AskJeeves (ASKJ) buys Bloglines? This confirms that 2005 is truly the year of the blog


• Speculators go short 30-year bond futures


• The Weekly Leading Index still points to a resilient economic expanision


• An interesting, but long study concerning the counterplay between active individual investors and smart traders after attention-grabbing events


• In my opinion, stocks move on emotion more than anything else


• After a recent lull in audits, the IRS cracks down


• One of the best ways to take advantage of the boom in mergers and acquisition activity is to buy shares of the only companies sure to see a payoff from it all - the investment banks who get paid big sums to negotiate the deals


• "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Philip Fisher

My Trading Radar & More

• Stocks at the top of my radar include CYBX, FORD, ICUI, GETI, KONG, MERQ, AXK, QUIK, ASYT, SALM, QSFT, CULS, DSTI, XRIT, SWB, SPTN, & LRW


• Off to a great start? In my opinion, Dubya's state of the union was probably one of, if not the best speech of his presidency


• "We've never seen U.S. companies so dependent on the steepness of the yield curve." -Leo M. Tilman


• Sad, but true. For the average person, frequent trading is not a recipe for success in the market


• Sex drugs don't sell as well as the analysts have expected


• So much money, so few hands


• Month after month, Detroit continues to lose American customers to Asian competitors


• Yet another interesting take on Google (GOOG)


• The Telecom Industry Association predicts that 26 million users will have VoIP by 2008, but security risks still remain


• I'm really looking forward to seeing those equity inflow numbers reported later tonight


• Martha Stewart gets ready to host new version of "The Apprentice," presumably featuring people who want to become rich felons


• Down today, up tomorrow following a strong jobs report?


• Did you know that half of all bankruptcies are caused by soaring medical bills?


• Wouldn't it be ironic if the employment picture finally shows some big improvement right before an economic recession?


• Get a cell phone for your dog?


• Go ahead and laugh all you want, but I just put a huge chuck of change in my 3% APY saving account at Emigrant. I'm calling it my "rainy day" fund


• According to recent study, the average American spends between $240,704 to $349,968 on automobiles during their lifetime


• "In life, there are pitfalls and there are opportunities. The idea is to avoid the pitfalls, seize the opportunities, and get back home by six o'clock." - Woody Allen

My Trading Radar

• According to Stock Trader's Almanac, January 31st is historically one of the best trading days of the year. However, the almanac also says that best three month span for the market ends today


• Stocks on my radar this morning include NOVN, NVEC, DAL, PTN, CREO, AIRT, SMSC, RITT, CKCM, LCAV, MTSC, NSEC, DUK, GRU, EZPW, RTEC, GRMN, LNOP, ISLE, OSTK, & TXRH


• In case you're wondering - we saw $28 billion inflows into mutual funds last January versus net estimated outflows and record net redemptions of roughly $9 billion so far this month


• Earnings reports of special interest to me this week include Plum Creek (PCL), Avanex (AVNX), Internet Security (ISSX), Disney (DIS), Zimmer (ZMH), Alliance Gaming (AGI), Boston Scientific (BSX), Chicago Mercantile (CME), Mobility Elec (MOBE), Candela (CLZR), Genesis HealthCare (GHCI), Google (GOOG), Alliant Tech (ATK), Devon Energy (DVN), Duke Energy (DUK), Linens'n Things (LIN), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Amazon.com (AMZN), Central Garden (CENT), Mercury Interactive (MERQ), Pulte Homes (PHM), Tessera Technologies (TSRA), Bankrate (RATE), Comcast (CMCSA), Penn Natl Gaming (PENN), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Tesoro Petroleum (TSO), TriPath Imaging (TPTH), Avid Tech (AVID), Ixia (XXIA), Omnicell (OMCL), Shanda (SNDA), Cardinal Health (CAH), Ventana Medical (VMSI), & Nam Tai (NTE)


• With the exception of Ronald Reagan & Bill Clinton, the first year of a president's second term has always been negative going all the way back to Abraham Lincoln's second term


• I can't believe it, but there are already rumors out there that Friday's jobs report will surprise on the upside


• The weekly leading index still points to a sustained economic expansion


• "I do not allow my possessions - or my prepossessions either - to do any thinking for me. That is why I repeat that I never argue with the tape. To be angry at the market because it unexpectedly or even illogically goes against you is like getting mad at your lungs because you have pneumonia." - Jesse Livermore


• Now that we've "won the war in Iraq," the bears' biggest fear this week is that Bush will announce a surprising timetable for a large military pullout over the next year


• Unifi (UFI) is one company where the insiders are buying


• Did you see 60 minutes last night? They really put the screws to Career Education (CECO) didn't they?


• Just a simple question - as an investor, how really worried were you about the election in Iraq? Your answer will likely help you figure out how bullish this news really is


• Over the last 20 years, there's been just four years (1990, 2000, 2002, 2003) in which the S&P 500 (SPX) was down more than 2% year-to-date heading into the last day of January. For what it is worth, each time the SPX closed up more than 1% on Jan 31st


• According to Thomson, companies are reporting earnings that are 3.5% above the estimates, which is above both the 2.6% surprise factor recorded last quarter and the historical average of 3.1%. The sectors recording the highest growth for the quarter are materials and energy, while the sectors recording the lowest growth for the quarter are utilities and telecommunications


• "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett

Putting Lipstick On This Pig

I'm running lots of screens this morning, but finding little to trade. Ugh. The bulls are covering the first hour supply so far, which is a positive sign. Helping matters some include additional short-covering as there are some who think that having a successful election in Iraq this weekend is going to be a positive catalyst. Looks like Wall Street is trying to put some lipstick on this pig.

Buyers are focused on energy, utility, biotech, retail, networking, and chips. Stocks on my radar include IIG, ORCT, PXD, AFFX, CKCM, EXM, NETL, HRS, DTPI, GCOR, DRIV, TDY, TALX, WBSN, WSTM, MAPX, MDF, CALM, & SRVY.

My Trading Radar & More

• Right on cue! Wall Street is trying to put on a happy face to close out the month and they're doing a good job of it so far this morning. Another triple-digit gain would do a lot of good, but we'll have to see if they've got the power


• Stocks on my trading radar this morning include SGTL, IFIN, INSP, CPWR, HOLX, APPB, SSNC, PLXT, NTIQ, FLEX, XTNDE, TSAI, VIAC, LCAV, LYTS, BCSI, USPI, JMDT, & PLB


• It's better to be disciplined and frustrated than stubborn and poor


• Want another factor to throw into the mix? The first day any forced buy-ins from Regulation SHO comes on Friday (i.e. follow the exchange links at Nasdaq, NYSE, AMEX). However, making matters more difficult - only stocks which have been on the list every day since it was first published (for the last 13 consecutive trading days) are subject to the buy-in


• I also believe that every portfolio should include some form of commodity-related investments as a true means of diversifying a portfolio


• Leave it to corporate America to find ways to circumvent Sarbanes-Oxley's ban on sweetheart loans


• Nice to see Hologic (HOLX) on the new 52-week high list following another solid earnings report. We last took a look at this winner last November


• One surprise so far during this earnings season is that buybacks haven't been more popular. It may just be a coincidence, but I find it interesting that we saw one of our best days in January yesterday and at the same time we also had the most buyback announcements on any single day so far this year


• When you're in the hole, you stop digging


• Even more bulls than bears - the Investor's Intelligence weekly sentiment survey shows those who are bullish increased to 56% vs. 55.90% while those who are bearish declined to 24% from 24.7%


• Steven Roach contemplates the conclusions reached at the annual MacroVision event


• The new U.S. tax law that encourages companies to repatriate profits from abroad is getting lots of chatter. Many think this is one of the main reasons behind the dollar's recent strength


• The New York Stock Exchange is considering a plan to open trading by as much as two hours earlier in a bid to attract more business from European investors. Within the decade, I wouldn't be surprised to see 24/7 trading on every exchange


• Market volatility was low last year, convincing some that this will change course this year and that volat