The Kirk Report

The Only Rule

Although it may not seem like it, this too shall pass. Eventually.

Until then, stay frosty and refuse to let small losses grow into larger ones. That's the only rule you need in this market and it will save you a fortune.

The Little Book That Makes You Rich

In spite of a horrendous title for any serious investment book, I enjoyed reading "The Little Book That Makes You Rich" by Louis Navellier. I have a bias against anything that claims to "makes you rich" so, if you're like me, don't hold the title against this little gem.

Although many of the concepts Navellier covers is already well-known by more savvy and experienced growth investors (and especially those who use stock screening in their strategy), this small book is worthwhile and has offered up some ideas and an online tool I think you may want to become more familiar with.

Navellier starts out his book out by outlining what makes for a great stock. In his view "the plain fact is at the end of the day what makes for a great growth stock one that can grow to 20 times your original investment is the fundamentals of the company." (page 2) The problem is, as Navellier talks about (and which I completely agree) is that fundamental variables have a short life span before they stop working and the edge is gone. For example, there will be periods of time the market "favors stocks with earnings momentum while there will be other periods that cash flow will reign supreme." (page 3) I've seen the same thing in the screens I monitor and this is a very important point to consider.

When people ask me what my favorite fundamental criteria is that I use in my favorite stock screens or why I utilize so many stock screens instead of just one, I realize they've yet to understand something very important - the market is always evolving and, like all of us, the market's preferences to what it rewards the most also do change over time. For example, you may hate eating sushi as a child, but later grow to love it when you get older and your tastes mature. The market is the same way. The challenge all of us have is to develop a strategy that takes that into consideration and to fit our strategy to the market's preferences. That's why any strategy or system that is built on the principle that "Do A, B, or C and you'll get rich" is ultimately doomed for failure. Nothing is that easy even though all of us wish differently.

In the bulk of the book, Navellier then goes on to make the case (and a compelling one at that) for 8 "tried and true" key fundamental factors to incorporate when screening your stocks. They are:

1. Positive earnings revisions

2. Positive earnings surprises

3. Increasing sales growth

4. Expanding operating margins

5. Strong cash flow

6. Earnings growth

7. Positive earnings momentum

8. High return on equity

If you don't know what these are or how important they are in the screens you use, then I think you'll find this book to be very worthwhile. I especially liked his perspective on why earnings estimates are typically a lot lower now (i.e. why most companies are beating their estimates) and why analyst revisions are so important to watch for. For example, Navellier talks about how herd mentality forces analysts to follow each other and stay too conservative because their most important goal is to avoid getting fired for being wrong by being too optimistic about a specific stock. (Surprise - their top priority is not to make you money!) In his view, analysts can miss as long as others miss along with them and they are too conservative because analysts don't get fired for being too conservative anymore. Therefore, when you do see analysts raising their estimates, it is a clear indicator that good things are happening in that stock.

While I don't want to give too much of the book away, if you're looking to understand what is currently working in modern stock screening now, Navellier does a great overview by explaining why each of these eight fundamental factors are important for stock selection. My only qualm is that I would have also like to read about how these factors have changed in his career and more importantly, what caused them to change. In addition, he provides little insight to how he modifies his screening system to provide greater weight toward certain fundamentals rather than others and how he adjusts them over time. I suspect this is a relatively large part of his proprietary strategy, but he provided little insight along these lines. While we both agree that things do change and you have to modify your criteria to suit the market, it would have been nice for him to offer a more complete review of how and why they have changed and how to recognize when and how to make routine adjustments based on market conditions. Doing so would have made his book more useful for experienced investors who utilize stock screens. But, I suppose I'm asking for too much from a book that is only 185 pages long and can be read in a couple of hours.

After covering the different fundamental factors, Navellier then goes into strategy of evaluating risk versus reward - in other words how to formulate portfolios that do well utilizing screens that lead toward selecting certain stocks. It is in this section that I personally found the most interesting. This is also a topic that I don't cover as much as I should something I would like to focus more attention on. The reason is simple - I provide a lot of very good stock screens that will serve members well, but if you don't know how to build a portfolio out of stocks those screens highlight, then chances are fairly good you're not using the screens the way you should and your results won't achieve the level you desire.

Navellier's approach is fairly simple. In essence, he calls it his Zig Zag approach. To do well in the market, Navellier recommends to create a portfolio that is 1) diversified across different industries & sectors, and 2) with individual stocks that have very different levels of risk. While most of us understand the importance of the first, it is the second point that I found the most interesting.

According to Navellier's research, a good starting portfolio will be comprised of a 60/30/10 mix. (page 106) In other words, 60% of your stocks should be rated "conservative," 30% of your stocks will be rated "moderately aggressive," and 10% will be rated "aggressive." In his research, this mix provided for "smoother, steadier returns." In essence, Navellier doesn't believe in using market-timing, but creating a portfolio that will do well no matter what happens in the market. In addition, the mix provides for a group of stocks that "tend to zig and zag against each other, thus helping to achieve higher and smoother returns." The bottom line is that by both diversifying your positions across a number of industries AND by varying your risk levels your portfolio is built do well without any market-timing. That kind of system should appeal to many of you who don't like timing the market or simply suck at it (in fact, most do including me at times).

So, how do you find out the level of risk of a particular stock or how a stock stands up to the 8 key fundamental factors that Navellier favors? Well, here's the nice part. As a free compliment to the book, Navellier's has created a website Get Rich With Growth which allows you to filter your favorite stocks so you can see how they rank both in terms of the 8 fundamental factors, but also in terms of risk, and also what he calls his "Quant Grade."

Although Navellier doesn't reveal how he creates his quant grade, he says on page 97 that high quant scores are typically indicative of "institutional buying pressure." This sounds like a fancy way of saying "money flow" or "accumulation" in an aloof way, but clearly he does utilize that in his strategies as I do as well and which I've also previously discussed in prior posts. For example, the MoneyStream filter I've shared I suspect is another way of doing this same thing although I'm sure Navellier's approach has been modified/perfected to suit his own strategies. Without more extensive evaluation and cross comparison of his quant scores with my own strategies, it is difficult for me to know exactly how he does it, but I intend to try to figure it out.

Near the end of the book, Navellier then talks about how to utilize his PortfolioGrader tool. For example, on page 123 he makes the claim that stocks that scored a fundamental A and that have A or B scores in all fundamental categories were true superstars even though "A" grade stocks remain A's for an average of four to five months. That list, he says, returned more than 50% per year from 1998 to 2003 and his website offers the following compelling graphic:

As you know, in the past I've found it fun and interesting to filter my screens' results against other systems. (See this previous post). So while we are at it, I thought it would be useful to go ahead and filter my stock screen machine stocks through Navellier's filtering system.

What I found was no surprise - the vast majority of stocks found within my stock screen machine rank very high in Navellier's system. For example, only 7 stocks out of 170 were tagged with low ratings while the rest scored at the top end of his ratings system. In fact, 15 stocks received Navellier's highest marks - with a score of A in total, quant, and fundamental grades. To view the excel file scores, take a look at this excel file I created (please also note my notes near the bottom of the excel file as I separate the top 15 stocks by risk):

As the excel file shows, within the top 15 highest rated stocks, the risk levels are close to Navellier's target allocations with 50% of them being conservative, 40% moderately aggressive, and 10% aggressive. (These are not precise percentages - I have to make some generalizations since I'm only dealing with 15 stocks in this small sample). The problem is that as you can see, the most of the top stocks represent only two sectors: information technology and industrials (according to Navellier's very own sector designations). And, there presents the challenge. Most of these ratings systems will target really good stocks in well-performing sectors, but diversification throughout sectors becomes the key challenge. Ideally, you would then want to fill in the gaps by looking for stocks in other sectors that are also highly ranked.

In addition, I'd also like to make the point that Navellier avoids (since he's advocating a stock-only focused strategy) is that you can also utilize ETFs to provide for some of this risk and sector distributions. For example, take my 80% passive/20% active lazy portfolio strategy I've recommended. In the 80% lazy portfolio section, if you do a good job of both separating your risk and sector allocations, you can afford then to add stocks to the portfolio that are more sector-concentrated and which present greater levels of risk. This is part of the nice thing about combining ETF and stock strategies now is that portfolio allocation becomes a whole lot easier to manage. For example, a portfolio that is structured so that 80% will match the performance of the overall market with 20% in well-selected individual stocks even with high levels or risk and sector concentration will serve you well.

For tracking purposes, I will create a model portfolio out of the highest ranked 15 stocks in the stock screen machine (again see excel file) and report back after some time has passed. Like with other systems I've profiled, I also like to evaluate how a system performs by what it doesn't rate well. Since the vast majority of stocks in my screen machine don't fit that category, I will use Navellier's built-in filter of the top 20 stocks to sell which he also makes available at his website. I know many of you are looking for short-sell screens, so I'm interested as well to see how this filter of the worst of the worst fares, especially in comparison to my own screen of junk stocks. If you intend to track these as well (and I suggest you do) in all fairness to Navellier's system, I will utilize Monday's closing prices for tracking purposes since these grades are based on Monday's update (he updates his ranking system every weekend). The top 20 stocks to sell have also been added to the excel file above in case you don't want to visit his website right now.

Bottom line - you'll want to check out his tool when you have time, if not add it to your toolbox. The fact that my stock screen machine stocks rank so highly in his system is a good sign of its utility. For now it is free, but keep in mind that after you provide an email address in registration, Navellier will begin to send you emails to inspire you to sign up for his expensive newsletters ($999 per year). A truly excellent marketing approach, if you ask me. By opening his system this way, he's making a bet that people would rather have him do the screening and provide his favorite picks instead of people doing the work on their own. From what I know of the investment public, that's a very low risk/high reward bet to make.

Notwithstanding this issue along with lots of boastful commentary about how smart he has been (a common element among newsletter gurus), Navellier did a good job with the book and offers a nice introduction to screening and the fundamental elements that are working in today's market. He also offers some perspectives in terms of risk management that make sense for most investors and so I do recommend it. In addition, he should be given full credit for freely opening up his system to everyone, especially for those of us looking to tweak, upgrade, and compare and contrast their own investment strategies to his approach. Without a doubt, I know I'll enjoy playing with his PortfolioGrader!

My Inflation Watch

In preparing my third quarter estimated taxes over the weekend, I made the mistake of looking over our spending patterns and household budget. As many of you could probably confirm with your budgets, we seem to be paying quite a bit more this year for two main things: travel & food. Quite a lot more.

In fact, what was our usual $100 per week in grocery bills is now averaging around $140 (a +40% year-over-year increase). I guess I shouldn't be surprised with the Fed more than willing to print money to throw at the economy. I suspect that in a couple of years these prices will seem really cheap in comparison to the amount we'll have to spend for the same items.

Clearly those who think inflation is dead must not be spending money the way we do. For now, I'll lump this behavior in the same category with those who previously thought that "you can't lose money in the housing market" and "all tech stocks will grow over 100% per year forever."

Yes, Bernanke is flooding the market with liquidity, but there is no free lunch. Enjoy it while it lasts.

More Blogs I Read

While the hype and interest in stock/market focused blogs has died down a little, I continue to be impressed with the level of hard work and dedication so many other bloggers provide. I say this after taking a couple of hours to review many of my bookmarked blogs in order to figure out which blogs now deserved to be added to the blogs I read page.

Like usual, every time I look through the blog links (including those I don't visit very often due to sheer time constraints), I usually find a few blogger casualties (i.e. those who've given up blogging for various reasons. For two examples, see Stockcoach's Corner & Big Money, No Whammies).

Since I know many of you read many more blogs than mine, I want to encourage you to take time out of your busy schedule and contact the bloggers who you like and let them know that you appreciate their efforts. If they provide advertisement links and/or provide a subscription service, then do the right thing and support their cause by clicking on their ads and by signing up. They deserve it. With corporate America in control over the media, the only way to make sure independent voices are heard is to support this medium every chance you get.

With that said, here are the blogs that will been soon be added to the blogs I read page which I think you'll find helpful:

• Abnormal Returns

• StockBee

• Dave's Daily

• A Dash of Insight

• Chris Perruna

• VInvesting

• The Stockmasters

• Alchemy Of Trading

• Millionaire Now!

• Phil Town

• Downtowntrader

• Clueless Q Trader

• InvestmentTools

• Value Blog Review

• Kevin's Market Blog

• Trade 4 Cash

• ETF Trends

• Stockerblog

• Michael Covel

• Financial Armegeddon

• Information Arbitrage

• The Kingsland Report

• Wall Street Greek

• Finance Trends Matter

• The Capital Spectator

• Technically Speaking

Did I miss any of your favorites? Please let me know.

Different Stages of Perception

The market always goes through different stages of perception, as Michael Steinhardt points out at his blog:

So, where do you think we are in this cycle?

Cash vs. Credit Card

Like thousands of other Americans, I recently received notice from my Mastercard that due to a recent security breach they must issue me a new credit card and I have to stop using the old one. The problem, of course, is that now I have to spend precious time switching all of the automatic billers to the new credit card. In my case, that's quite a time-consuming task.

The whole process has me convinced, probably now more than ever, that paying cash for everything is a better way to go (at least for everything I reasonably can). Since I don't carry a balance and the only two reasons why I use credit cards to begin with is to get the reward points and to track my spending, it simply isn't worth the hassle or security risk anymore. I suspect I'm not alone in this view. Perhaps we'll see a trend away from credit card use in America. Now that would be a positive trend!

Crunch Time

I feel like I'm back in law school this week with my first year law exams ahead. The reason? I have only a few trading days left before the end of the year and if I'm going to beat the S&P 500 I have a very short period of time to do it in. As many of you know, I'm still underperforming as my cash position continues to be a giant albatross.

While I did well in law school (1996-1999), I was a serious procrastinator back then. At the time I was trading full time (after all, that's where my passion was and still is) and more often than not I ended up learning a semester's worth of material in just a couple of days right before the final exam. Since law school exams count for 100% of your class grade, it provided for a tremendous amount of stress and performance pressure. Looking back at that time period of my life now, I'm amazed that I even managed to survive.

All of us have to dig deep inside to make good things happen when push comes to shove. My game plan for the next 10 days is to do exactly that. Hopefully you're well ahead of the game by now and can afford to take it easy for the remainder of the year. For the rest of us, let's make it every trade count!

5 Things I'm Most Thankful For

While I try at all times to be thankful each and every day for the blessings I have, it is this time of the year where most of us will take time to give thanks. While I won't make this a sappy love fest, here are the 5 things I'm most thankful for this year:

1) Family: Always supportative and my biggest cheerleaders. They believed in me when I gave them few reasons to do so.

2) Health: While I could certainly spare to drop a few pounds and increase my daily exercise, I've been quite healthy. The truth is the matter is that if you don't have good health, no matter how much money you have in your bank account, it won't matter one little bit. Our health is the most precious resource we have.

3) Career: Trading full time and doing this website has been a great privilege. Every morning I wake up excited to go to work and the friends and relationships that have gained as a result have been truly incredible.

4) Wealth: My trading performance has been better in previous years but I'm still thankfully moving in the right direction. Our financial situation is both secure and strong enabling us to give more back and occasionally splurge on a few unnecessary things and trips.

5) Challenges: Without our struggles and mistakes, there is no learning and therefore no progress. So, for the times I've failed and that I've been wrong, I'm thankful as they'll help me do better in the years to come.

What are you most thankful for this year?

INVESTools

If I had the ability to clone myself, I would start a new blog that focuses on one thing: reviewing trading tools, software, and stock screen websites for others. Unfortunately, I've yet to discover a website that takes a "consumer reports" approach to evaluating the offerings available to traders/investors and, if I had more time, I would do it myself.

The truth is that I don't usually try new tools very often. First, I have a nice set of tools at my fingertips already and, second, I don't believe that any tool will make you a more successful trader. That said, there are so many offerings out there that it would be nice to see someone else take time review them properly without any bias.

As you know, some of the trading magazines attempt to do this already, but I have to admit that finding a negative review is like finding a needle in a haystack in those publications. That can't be since I know I've come across software that I wouldn't recommend or feel it was worth the price. In addition, I'm always suspicious of publications which review software, tools and websites and then I later see ads in the publication for those same services. I know sometimes this is only coincidental, but when you see the combination of a very positive review and advertisements in that same publication, you do have to wonder whether the positive review was legitimate.

I digress along this road because I'd like to share one experience I recently had with a company in the news today. Over the past year I've been hearing praise from those who are subscribers at INVESTools and those positive comments led me to investigate their offerings myself. When I arrived at the website, I noticed a few things right off the bat that doesn't make me a happy camper. First, there is no price for the services they offer. Second, I have to either call or chat online with their sales reps to get more information on "how to enroll." In a day an age when you can do just about everything online, this kind of hard sell tactic doesn't win many points as far as I'm concerned.

Nevertheless, I decided to bite the bullet anyway and did an online chat with one of their sales reps today. You can read a full transcript below:

You are now chatting with 'Jennifer D'

Jennifer D: Welcome to the Admissions Live Chat. How may I assist you?

Charles Kirk: Hello. I would like to know how much your charge for a subscription to your investor toolbox. Thank you.

Charles Kirk: Hello?

Jennifer D: I am here

Jennifer D: Where did you hear about us?

Charles Kirk: Online from other subscribers.

Jennifer D: Great!

Jennifer D: We have an introduction package that would include the online course of the Basic Stocks, 6 months access to the web site (toolbox), and you can choose either a 2 day workshop or 6 months of our online coaching.

Jennifer D: This package is $2029.00.

Jennifer D: Do you have experience in the market?

Charles Kirk: I am an experienced investor and trader and do not want the workshop or online coaching, just access to the toolbox. How much would that be?

Jennifer D: We don't sell just the access. The minimum would be the $2029.00.

Jennifer D: After the 6 months the web access is $50 a month.

Charles Kirk: Do you offer a free trial access to the toolbox?

Jennifer D: The only way I can do this is by actually securing the payment with your credit card and giving you an amount of time to go through the web site. If you feel like you are unhappy then we will issue you a refund.

Charles Kirk: How long do I get to "try" the toolbox and can I just pay for the toolbox fee and not the $2K grand?

Jennifer D: I can give you 2 weeks to go through the web site. The minimum would be the $2k. You can not just pay for the toolbox fee to start.

Jennifer D: I am sorry, we just don't offer that.

Charles Kirk: Why not? I'm an experienced trader and investor and I'm not interested in coaching or trading help. I just want access to the tools.

Jennifer D: The online course covers on how to best utilize the web site.

Jennifer D: There is a lot of information on the web site and you need to know how to use it so that you can utilize it correctly. I am sorry, but there is nothing I can do about that.

Charles Kirk: What is the difference between your toolbox and the screening services offered at Prophet.net which I've been told are very similar?

Jennifer D: Prophet.net is just a charting tool to help you with the timing. We offer the fundamentals, insider trading portfolio management. We actually own Prophet.net.

Charles Kirk: Yes. I know you do. But, that's not my question. Can you specifically give me examples of your toolbox since your website does not provide a lot of details?

Jennifer D: What I can do is set up a time with you for a tutorial. I can have you log into my computer and you can see the toolbox for yourself. Would that be beneficial for you?

Charles Kirk: Yes, that would be fine. I'm available right now to do that.

Jennifer D: What is a good number to get a hold of you?

Charles Kirk: I do not want to provide personal contact information. I can give you my email address, but that is all.

Jennifer D: In order to do the tutorial we would need to be on the phone so that I can explain in detail. We do have an online preview tonight that I can enroll you in, but I would still need your phone number to enroll you in this.

Charles Kirk: Why do you need my telephone number? I do not wish to be contacted that way or have my personal information sold.

Jennifer D: We do not sell our students or potential students information. Let me give you my contact information. I am just trying to assist you in with the information you are requesting. In order to do that we would need to be on the phone. Feel free to contact me at ###-###-#### Ext #### if you want to set up the tutorial. But in order to attend the preview we must need your phone number. You can put on there that you would not like to be contacted if you wish. But, in order to even get you signed up with the toolbox we will still need that information.

Charles Kirk: Is there a reason why you don't provide the ability to sign up for a trial period online before forking over the $2,029.99? That's quite a lot of money to pay for a service/product that I haven't seen.

Jennifer D: I just know that our policy is that we have to secure the card first. Then in the time allowed you have the option to cancel if you wish.

Charles Kirk: Well, thank you for your help. Goodbye.

I don't like hard-sells and any company that forces you to go through this process to find more information about their products and services isn't one that I'm going to do business with. Period! They may offer a great product and service, but I'm certainly never going to know that. Perhaps others have much more patience with this than I do which is probably why I don't do these kind of reviews.

My Political Bias

A few times over the past weeks I've linked to commentary and analysis by others who've displayed a political bias, either conservative or liberal. As a result I always receive email suggesting that I have no right to link to those articles because some of you think I have a political bias or agenda on my own. So, let me take a moment to set the record straight.

First, as the election draws near, it does have an affect on the "mood of the market" and the articles I have linked to display that vividly. To avoid political commentary over the next few weeks is like planning an outdoor picnic without talking about the weather. The election does matter and it does affect the market's mood. Therefore I will continue to link to articles that talk about the election and many of those will have a political bias to them. Like everything I link to away from this website, my goal is to not persuade you to agree with those opinions but to understand what the issues are, how they may influence the election, and ultimately the market. Like always, you need to think like a lawyer when reading these articles.

As for my own political bias, you should know that I am not a Republican or Democrat. I'm registered as an independent and have a strong Libertarian bias (i.e. conservative on economic issues and liberal on social issues). For what it is worth, I neither voted for Bush nor Clinton and I tend to vote against incumbents at every opportunity. With a double-major in political science and philosophy in college, this political bias shouldn't be all that surprising. Most traders I know have similar political leanings and those who don't tend to let their own bias control their moods and strategies which can work against you unless you take action to control and limit their influence. In short, show me a flaming liberal or a right wing conservative and I'll show you someone who probably can't limit their bias to think and trade objectively. Sure, there are always unique exceptions to this rule, but not very often. The market often requires you to be much more objective if your top priority is to make money rather than just trying to prove your opinions are "right." I don't know about you, but I'm much more focused on making money. Opinions, even when correct, don't pay the bills.

Straight From The Q&A

A number of members found my answer to this specific Q&A of interest so I thought I'd share it with everyone:

Steve asks: Would you be so kind to share your experience on your blog regarding trouble in trading? I have been trading for about 1-1/2 years and recently have been in a rut. I know everyone goes thru these times and most recommend doing intensive review, do you have any suggestions?

Kirk answers: Just like the economy and market, everything goes through cycles, both good, bad, and in the middle. Trading is the same way. You haven't really been trading for long enough to know that it just comes with the territory. Any trader who says they can produce big profits day in day out without experiencing a trading rut is not being honest.

As you say, the first thing that most traders do is try to "fix" their strategy by an intensive review. While it is good to try to make every improvement you can about your approach, I also think there is also a danger commonly overlooked by a lot of traders. That is, they move from one strategy to the next without giving any strategy enough time to fully develop and become successful. I hear from traders all of the time who tell me they've tried dozens of trading strategies but none of them have ever worked. When I ask them how long they've spent with each, they often say just a few weeks or a couple of months. These traders are seeking the holy grail - a simple way of beating the market without really developing a strategy that will work for them over the long-term. To give you some perspective, I'm still in the process of working on the very same trading strategies that I've been developing over the past 10 years.

In sum, be introspective, but don't let a trading rut force unnecessary changes if you've been doing well and making substantive progress overall. Up, downs, and lots of "in the middle" are to be expected. A great analogy to the learning curve we all experience as traders is very similar to the process of losing lots of weight. You can have a great diet and work out daily, but it takes time for your body to understand that it must slim down and shed the fat and ultimately make progress toward your goals. The reason why many people don't lose weight is that they give up before they start to see positive results. They're working hard and sacrificing, but when no results come they quickly lose the motivation. I see the same thing in a lot of traders. A lot of people are doing a lot of "right" things but they grow impatient because they think everyone else is making tons of money, they set very unrealistic expectations, and when things get tough they give up. Frankly, a lot of investment advisories prey on those emotions because they often imply how easy it is to get rich trading stocks if you just listen to them. I've said this before and I'll say it again - this is not easy. Anything and anyone that promises you big bucks with no work should be ignored just like all of the weight-loss scams the promise significant weight loss without a healthy diet and exercise.

The Big Picture

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." - Mark Twain

As we're nearing all-time highs in the Dow, those of us who still think that we're only in a rally within a narrow trading range have been very quiet lately. Perhaps too quiet.

Even in all of the reading I do daily, I have not read one single utterance from those who still think that we're still stuck in a long-term trading range. As usual, the herd tends to get very bullish at the upper end of the trading range and very bearish at the bottom end. This time is no different, as Mark Twain would agree.

There's nothing like a big bull market over the past three years to make you doubt your convictions and analysis. Yet, when you step away and look at the big picture, that sideways trading range concept still holds water. As we see from the historical comparison in the Dow below, having multi-year trading ranges after huge rallies is not unusual, either in stocks or the market itself. The last one lasted 20 years. So, when you think that the past 6 years has ended that time frame and that it is time to get back into stocks aggressively, you may want to temper your enthusiasm a bit.

Obviously in past sideways trading range markets, it paid to be bearish at the top and bullish at the bottom. I don't think this time is going to be any different. As we see from the last 20 year trading range, false breakouts and false breakdowns were common, so even if we push to new highs in the short-term, I'm fairly sure you can not trust it. Particularly when you examine the current status of the economy, inflation, interest rates, and very troubling signs ahead I think for the consumer and the housing market. Yes, these things haven't mattered in the past, but I think they will in due time. Most alarming to me personally is the amount of new found interest I'm seeing in the market and the massive inflows by the individual investor again. This group always tends to come in at the late stages of the cycle, never at the beginning.

I don't want to rain on anyone's party. Frankly, I truly hope I'm dead wrong about this sideways trading opinion. But, I'm still sticking to it and nothing recently has changed my opinion for good or for ill. As always, you need to make up your own mind and adjust your risk exposure accordingly.

I'd Rather Be Trading

It's a jumpy market out there on this post-expiration Monday. Just another round of consolidation following last week's advance? At this point, there's little reason not to think so.

Have you ever had one of those days that you can't seem to get anything done? We'll, I'm having that kind of day today. I've been watching the tape, running a couple of screens, doing some reading (and preparing the links post which I think I'll post tomorrow instead of today), and I haven't even looked at my email yet. Frankly, I'm a little scared to. Making matters worse, I worked through the weekend and I'm still far behind on things I really need to get done. Talk about poor time management and low productivity! Or, perhaps, I just simply have too much stuff to do.

This afternoon I'll try to be more focused and hopefully get more done. One of these days I'm going to print out a t-shirt that says "I'd Rather Be Trading," since it pretty much sums up my mood at the moment. I hope you're faring better than I am at the moment and having a good Monday.

Rules Of The Road

Before this week, the vast majority of readers who discovered The Kirk Report did so through three primary ways: 1) word of mouth from other readers and direct links from other blogs, 2) positive referrals in the mainstream financial press, and 3) from doing a keyword search at an online search engine. The Barron's article, however, has released the floodgates. As a result, readership has changed overnight and because of that, I think it is now appropriate to do a rules of the road post, particularly for those of you who are new readers.

What I do at this website is to provide access to what I know, what I've learned, the tools & research I use, what I'm thinking about & reading, and what I'm doing in response. As a reader, you're in the position of sitting over my shoulder to some degree, learning from both my strengths and weaknesses so that you can improve your own skill set and knowledge about the market. I've been doing this for a long time, but I still have lots to learn.

The Kirk Report, however, is not a stock pick advisory or recommendation service. I do not provide personalized investment advice or stock pick recommendations of any kind, at any time. As you'll discover, I only share what I'm personally doing & thinking, no more & no less. Please don't simply disregard these statements as just another mumbo jumbo disclaimer that you read other places and soon then forget. It is a matter of personal importance to me that you know where and why I stand on this issue.

Over the years, I've met and have become friends with some of the most successful traders in the world. And, I will tell you a little secret - none of these successful people have ever relied on others for stock picks or investment advice to make their fortunes. All successful investors and traders must discover that you have to make your own fortune in the market.

The good news is that each and every one of you have the power and opportunity to do so, providing that you're also willing to accept the responsibility that necessarily entails. To find success in the market, you must understand, know, and fully appreciate the fact that you must develop your own strategy and approach to the market. While I can help you do that to some extent, my own opinions, views, trading decisions, etc. cannot serve as a substitute for yours, no matter how right or good they may be.

For some of you, I know these words will be very disappointing. It is just much easier for me to tell you to go out and buy XYZ and for you to make tons of money doing so. I understand that desire. If I could pay someone to trade for me and make me big money by doing nothing I'd jump at that opportunity. But, that's not the way life works in reality. Trading successfully takes dedication, hard work, perseverance, skills, and knowledge. I can only help you with some of that but trust me, if you do make the decision to become successful, it will be worth the work. At least it always has for me.

In the end, the absolute largest obstacle in the way of most individual traders and investors is that they must realize that there are no short cuts to success. If you've managed to overcome that obstacle, I think you're really going to like what you find here.

The Popularity Of Blogs

Options expiration days are always interesting and today was no exception.

The market closed the week on a weak note and frankly I don't have a clue why. My focus today was instead on the members' only Q&A and servicing emails wondering what happened to the website today (i.e. where did this week's posts go and why I didn't post anything today). Suffice it to say, that the popularity of blogs have finally taken their toll on the service providers, like Typepad, which runs this website. Here's an MSNBC update concerning the situation.

Obviously, I'm not pleased, but growing pains should be expected. With everyone now running their own blogs, I'm actually surprised it hasn't happened more. Although I hope it's not a sign of what's to come, I fear it may. The best we can do is to be patient, demand service providers like Typepad clean up their act, and arrange backup alternatives. Enough said.

I hope everyone has a great weekend. There will be no newsletter this weekend due to the outage, but I'll still be back Monday morning. See you then.

How Markets Really Work

One of the things I miss most about having so many new responsibilities (trading full time, this website, the book I'm writing, volunteer activities, etc.) is the amount of time I once had just to read and learn about the market. I miss those days quite a bit because I think that part of being a good trader and investor should be focused on the constant activity of learning new things.

If you show me a trader or investor who already thinks they already know everything and there is nothing else to learn, then you probably know someone ready to eat a large serving of humble pie. The one good thing Mr. Market is consistently good about is serving that in large portions to anyone and everyone who thinks they've got everything figured out. In fact, sometimes just remembering key principles and strategies can work wonders. If you're like me you tend to forget the vast majority of what you've already read and frequently have to remind yourself of strategies and data you've already learned.

During Thanksgiving break, I managed finally to skim through a few new books, including "How Markets Really Work" by Larry Conners. It's one of the more simplified books I've skimmed in recent memory. In essence, book makes the following key points and backs them up with charts, graphs and research to prove their point:

• Statistics show that it has been better to be a buyer of new short-term lows, rather than a buyer of new short-term highs


• Contrary to popular wisdom, it is not better to be a buyer after the market has been strong and has made multiple days of higher highs


• Likewise, it is not better to be a seller after the market has shown signs of weakness and has made multiple days of lower lows


• The notion that short-term market strength follows through with more market strength appears to be wrong. In fact, historical results show that short-term weakness is followed by short-term strength and short-term strength is followed by short-term underperformance


• It is better to buy when market breadth has been poor versus when market breadth has been strong


• Large volume by itself is not significant. The edge is strongest when you combine both price and volume

I found these common sense observations especially apropos considering where we are now at this stage of the 4Q rally. If history serves as a guide, the risk falls heavily on those putting money aggressively to work on the long side at these levels. Sure, the market can and does frequently prove history wrong, but when you're trying to make an educated guess about the near-term direction, it does pay to keep this stuff in mind to balance out some of the emotions you may be feeling about now.

Warren Buffett & George Soros

Everyone is talking about the recent buys and sells from Warren Buffett & George Soros, so I suppose it is worth commenting upon.

According to a recent filing, George Soros added exposure to the market by showing previously undisclosed positions in Intel (INTC), Amazon.com (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY) and an increased stake in Microsoft (MSFT).

Meanwhile, in a SEC filing, Berkshire Hathaway, the Warren Buffett controlled company, revealed a 30 million share stake in Ameriprise (AMP), the financial services arm of American Express (AXP). It also appears the company increased its stake in Home Depot (HD) and Tyco International (TYC) while decreasing its stake in troubled retailer Pier One (PIR) and Shaw Communications, the Canadian communications company.

Clearly, both market gurus like the big cap variety no doubt due to the size of positions they must hold. The only unique position in this group is in Ameriprise (AMP), which has some interesting qualities. I've never really understood Buffett's facination with Pier 1 (PIR) and it appears he's coming to terms with that as well. As for Soros turning bullish on tech - well, George, welcome to the party. So is just about everyone else these days. The only big shocker is that neither have bought into the Google (GOOG) phenomenon, at least not yet!

Why Mess Around?

As Greenspan and Bush talk things over, market gurus like Jim Cramer remind us that "when everyone looks for things to be bad, they tend not to work out that way."

Fair enough. The problem is that unless Mr. Market proves that he has the ability to shake off these problems, why mess around? In my trading career, I have been successful because I've known when to stay away from the game. It took me years to figure that one out and based on some of the email I receive, that lesson isn't one widely accepted or appreciated.

Gurus and other market pundits like to claim that "there's always a bull market somewhere." And, in many ways, I agree with that theory. If I didn't, I wouldn't be a trader and I would just move my money into low-cost index funds and find a different career.

However, what is often lost somewhere is the true appreciation for the practice of picking your spots and finding and capitalizing on fat pitches. I'm beating the market this year, albeit by a slim margin, primarily because I'm doing exactly that.

A Delayed Payday

A friend told me yesterday that if Phil made his short putt to start out the day, that he would win the PGA Championship. And, sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Congratulations to Phil and his adorable family!

A well-known thing called momentum makes a world of difference both on and off the golf course. You either have it, or you don't. While guts and hard-work will frequently enable you to have more momentum than being lazy or complacent, sometimes even your best efforts will fall flat. That's just the way life works, and you've got to deal with it.

For many years, Phil was in the right position at the right place, but failed to close the deal. His hard work and immense talent failed to capture the major championships in golf. But, as you can see from his win last year at the Master's and today's win of the PGA Championship, that is all in the past.

Recently, I've been without much momentum. Despite a trio of successful daytrades in Baidu.com (BIDU) on the opening day, I've been sitting on the bench. Behind the scenes, I continue to look for high-reward trades, but continue to find few that fit my requirements despite that work. Just to give you some idea - over the past two weeks I've put in at least 50 hours of research work just in trying to find new opportunities. That's a lot of time!

Now, I'm not going to say that there are no trades to be found. Because they certainly are out there. But they are usually sitting in, what I call, the 50/50 risk variety. Which means that my risk and reward is roughly about even, or slightly a bit worse than that. As a trader, I have two choices: 1) I can put the trades on with tight risk controls (i.e. stop loss orders), or 2) I can be patient and keep looking for better risk/reward trades. For the time being, I'm choosing the latter, primarily due to the fact that market itself doesn't seem to have much momentum on its side. If the market had more momentum (and I did as well), I'd be much more likely to put trades on with tight risk controls.

So, as the herd on Wall Street anxiously awaits post Labor-day trading, I bid my time, I keep working on narrowing out my watch lists, and I stay patient. Eventually, the time and work I put in will pay off. That's ok. I don't mind putting off a future payday, as long as that payday finally arrives. Fortunately for me, it always has sooner or later. And, that makes the reward even greater.

VOIP Surprise

If you told me last January that VOIP stocks would be big losers this year, I would have expressed some skepticism. After all, VOIP was suppose to be a big theme for investors this year, but that simply hasn't panned out. I suspect it has a lot to do with the lack of leadership in this fragmented industry. Even Deltathree.com (DDDC), a stock I've previously traded, just hit a fresh year-to-date low. Yet, the contrarian in me suggests it is again time to take a look at stocks in this sector, albeit for a speculative year-end trade.

Ameritrade Online Investor Index

Occasionally I take a look at what the "little-guy" is trading these days by pulling up Ameritrade's Online Investor Index. The website shows the top 10 daily buys and sells of their clients.

There are a few things you can glean from today's report. First, investors are trading a lot of big cap stocks (and there are a ton of buy-the-dippers in General Electric (GE)). Secondly, what's the deal with significant interest in Dynamic Materials (BOOM)? I know the stock has been a winner, and it is apparently a very popular trading vehicle. And, finally, it is interesting to me that traders still are attracted to shares of Calpine (CPN) - obviously, they see something there I don't.

No More Bear Markets?

Here's a question I received over the weekend from a reader and my reply. I think you'll find it interesting.

"I recently heard an interview with a very respected senior hedge fund/trading advisor who said with no hesitation that there NEVER will be another bear market because the government has in a place a "plunge protection team" to buy when the market is going down. I always had a suspicion about this and that this so called "plunge protection team" is in cahoots with the big brokers to implement it. Do you believe any of this?"

My reply: I think that is the simply the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. While the government can work its magic on interest rates, cook the economic reports, and go heavily into debt, all chickens will come home to roost sooner or later. The business cycle, and yes it is a cycle, will remain inspite of these efforts. Nature always finds a way. At least that is my view, no disrespect intended for those who have a sincere belief that this time is different. In fact, similar comments were made by investors and government representatives in Japan right before their economy and stock market imploded.

A Tide That Lifts All Boats

One major complaint I have about those who write about the stock market and stocks in general, is that after the rally we've just seen, more than a few of these folks like to pat themselves on the back for being so brilliant. I not only read that type of commentary on the financial websites I monitor, but I always receive quite a few emails telling me that "remember when I told you about XYZ, why didn't you buy it? You moron!" Over the past week or so, I must have received a dozen or so emails like that.

However, any truly good trader and consistent stock picker would never say such things. The reason? We all know how tough this game is and hubris always kills. The more you think you've figured out the market, the more likely Mr. Market is going to empty your pockets in the next round.

In addition, those who make such claims to others only are at risk of upsetting the trading gods. While trading stocks is a skill game, there is luck involved. Do not discount that lightly or ignore that element completely. While hard work will make you much luckier than the average member of the herd, you don't want the trading gods against you. I've seen it happen to other traders in the past and it isn't pretty.

We all know how good the market has been of late. If you've made good money over the past few weeks, I'm very happy for you. As I've said before, I am both privileged and honored to share in your successes, as well as failures. I want every single reader who visits this website to make more money than they ever dreamed was remotely possible in the market. But don't cloud a rising tide that lifts all boats with market savvy. Every trader has good and bad times, that's part of the business.

Finally, those who trade consistently well overall don't focus on their successes or talk about them much. These smart and successful traders are simply too busy to waste their time in such futile endeavors. Instead, they're working hard to make more money in the future with even better trades. And, if they've just made a killing in the market, more often than not, these same folks are trying to figure out why they didn't make even more money! That's how winners think and trade. In my opinion, that's a good example to follow.

Summer Returns

If I had my way, between June and August, the market would be closed for business. That way I could get plenty of golf in, have time to get various other projects done, and then be ready for the fall, which is always a good time to make money in the market. Instead, what usually happens is that Wall Street tries to get everyone interested in the fable of the summer rally. As if the gains we've seen this month don't really count!

As some of my long-term readers know, I take it easy during the summer. While I usually have the pedal to the metal for the rest of the year, the nice weather in Minnesota (which is so unusual) does create quite a distraction. Like everyone who lives in this part of the country, when the weather finally gets nice, the last thing you want to do is sit in front of your computer trading stocks. Trading for a living, while very stressful and challenging, does provide incredible flexibility. That is especially true if you live well below your means and can afford to take the time away.

So, just as a heads up, with this week starts my summer-time hours. What does that mean? It means I take afternoons off and my pace slows down considerably (both in trading and posting to the website). I even take a few days off here and there for some non-market related pursuits (i.e. fun).

For some new readers, I'm sure that will come both as a surprise and also as a disappointment, but few people can truly run at the pace I do for months on end without taking some time to release the grip on the wheel a bit. The good news is that when I return back to normal, I'm usually at the top of my game.

Rest and time away can work wonders for your portfolio, even though few traders seem to realize those benefits. So as we start the summer months, be sure to take a break and don't feel guilty about taking it easier for awhile. Some of the best traders I know don't touch a single stock during this time frame, and based on their performance numbers they routinely share with me, I can't argue with their approach.

Trading For A Living

A major disadvantage of trading for a living is that the bulk of your work time is in complete solitary. For some people, that is too difficult to bear. But having grown up as an only-child with no brothers and sisters and being very independent in general, I have the right personalty makeup that thrives in a solitary working environment. As a child, I could play for days without anyone around and be very happy. As an adult, I do the same thing with my own work, much to the amazement of those who actually understand what I do for a living.

That being said, trading is still a very lonely pursuit, which is why having this website is still very worthwhile. I not only have a soapbox on which to share my thoughts, views, and also emotions, but I also get to know many of you who read the website. In many ways, having this forum helps me. I not only to learn from my mistakes (which are documented here in excruciating detail), but also I gain because I know from your email that I've been of great help to many of you and many of you share your own thoughts and strategies with me in return. As you can imagine, I frequently share in readers own successes, and well as failures, and in just about every way possible, the solitary nature of trading for a living is not present for me. In sum, that makes what I do at the website more than a little worthwhile.

So, how can you make trading for a living a better experience? If you don't want to blog or share your views in public, I think it is still a good idea to share the experience with others. That doesn't mean with your spouse who often is too biased to provide valuable input. For example, my wife and I have a rule that we don't talk about the market or stocks in general. From what I know from others who have spouses as back-seat portfolio managers, it is a very rare occurrence to find a successful husband-wife stock picking team that performs really well. I think it has much to do with the combination of money, stress, priorities, and different personalities that frequently make up a husband and wife team. Marriage is challenging enough without that tension, and that comes from someone who has been very happily married for the past 12 years.

In addition, I've also never really subscribed to the theory that successful stock-picking can be done by committee, which is why I've always avoided the investment club route. Some people love them, but I never thought I could learn much from people who were more clueless about the market than I was. In addition, the notion that a majority of people could be right, even in small groups, goes against my contrarian nature when approaching the market. While I'm sure there are some exceptions to the rule (there always are), I don't recommend going that way unless, of course, you really are the dumbest, most unskilled person in the room. In those cases, you may actually learn a few things.

Which brings up a very important point. You've got to be very selective on who you look to learn from in this business. For this reason, it has been years since I've visited an internet chat room or online message board. That's also one of the reasons why you'll never see a message board or chat room at this website, because I don't advocate their use. Sure, there are a few exceptions, but they are well in the minority.

As you can probably guess by now, I subscribe completely to the theory that if you want to become intelligent, then you need to hang out with people smarter than you. Unfortunately, those who know their stuff in this business are not readily accessible as they're too busy making money. I know this from personal experience, since I've also consistently tried to make the connections with money managers who I respect who don't have the time (or motivation) to respond to my emails. Sure, there are some exceptions to this rule, but in general those who are in the know, won't let you into their inner circle unless they gain something bigger in return.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of people who do offer their views about the market, couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag, nevertheless beat the market on any consistent basis. The newsletter gurus are particularly guilty of this phenomenon, because the vast majority of those folks need to sell newsletter subscriptions in order to make a consistent living. After all, that's the primary motivation for them going into that business to begin with. If they were truly consistently successful in the market, why would they even think about taking time to sell newsletter subscriptions? They'd be enjoying the good life by now!

That's one of the main reasons I left that business long-ago, because I had absolutely no desire to be a part of that kind of slimy industry any longer. Sure, there are a few exceptions, but in general, those folks are just as clueless as the rest of us. The quicker you learn that and the less you pay up for their services, the better off you and your portfolio will be. Many people will hate me for saying that, but that is the way it is. But, in a time when so many investors look only for easy fixes and get-rich solutions, the newsletter industry will always have an audience and customers to support them. But, if you're really interested in success for the long-term, don't waste your time making the focus of your strategy to follow others, because you won't like the road they're going to take you on.

The good news is that the internet is filled with people more than willing to share their own thoughts and views as well as strategies to investing and trading stocks. With the amazing growth in blogs, which makes sharing the process easier than it ever has been before, the tides are quickly changing so that those without profit-motives as their number one goal are sharing their views in an effort to inform and educate. In fact, I've been told by more than a few people that I have inspired them to share their journey with others, and in many ways, I can't be paid any higher compliment. That means I've made a difference in this world, and as a someone who plays the zero sum game for a living, that is awesome.

While this game is tough filled with people who want to clean your clock and empty your pockets in more ways than one, there are exceptions to the rule and the real opportunity in stock-market blogs by individuals who actually desire to help others is a powerful trend that I hope is here to stay. As always, I'll do my part to share what I think who offers value and avoid those who don't, and perhaps entertain and inform you along the way. And, as always, thank you for being here and taking the time to share your experiences with me!

Earnings Season

At times I receive similar emails from readers. Dave sends the following email to me this morning:

"With the earnings announcements beginning, I was wondering if you could tell me what your daily procedure is for handling this extremely large amount of information. How do you receive the earnings reports (IBD, DGO)? Do you perform a sort of triage (grouping the most promising in one catagory, the next most in another, and so on)? What do you do with the ones that you find most promising? And the last question, how much time per day is spent analyzing the earnings report?"

Great questions Dave. Earnings season is a busy time for me because I have to play two different roles: 1) that of an long-term investor who monitors the earnings reports closely in all of the positions currently owned as well as those on my watch list that I want to own in the future, and 2) as a trader I have to keep watching for opportunities in the reaction of reports that are provided.

Like most traders who have to don two different caps, I tend to spend more time on the former, than the latter. Trading during earnings season is always more difficult, so I prefer to spend more time digging around the fundamentals (looking through the latest reports, running the numbers, & listening to conference calls). At the same time, I am using the data from IBD and others regarding earnings performance as the basis of some of the stock screens I run. For example, I recently created a screen that specifically looks for stocks with expanding profit margins which tends to perform well in this kind of market. I'll use the data I find to figure out where I need to focus my energy and capital. Like trading, I build watch lists and research as time permits.

And, finally, how much time do I spend analyzing the earnings report? Frankly, it all depends on what I'm after. If I think I'm wrong in one of my holdings, I'll spend a lot of time trying to boil down the fundamentals in order to determine if the market's reaction to the report was correct and whether I should sell and move to a competitor. But, as many of you know, with trading I don't pay much attention to the fundamentals. That's why earnings season is a challenging time for those of us who try to incorporate both strategies at the same time along with a heavy dose of information overload.

Weekly Leading Index

As a trader and investor, I use a plethora of indicators to help me make better trading and investment decisions. No one indicator, or factor, is controlling, no matter how much I may like or have found that indicator to be a good guide to future market performance in the past.

Such is the case with the Weekly Leading Index provided by ECRI. As many of you know from reading my website, I like this indicator as it provides a big picture view of where the economy has been and where it is going. That being said, I don't trade or make long-term investing decisions based solely upon it. Unfortunately, no one single indicator can do that for you, at least none that I've found to be 100% reliable. If there were, I'd be retired in Hawaii by now and I'd have a lot more free time to spend on the golf course.

I'm making this point, since I think what I've said and written about the weekly leading index in the past may have confused some readers. For example, in their blog yesterday, CXO evaluated the weekly leading index (partially because I keep talking about it) and concludes that "the ECRI weekly leading index has a little bit of predictive power for the stock market, but not enough to give trading signals. And, the ECRI WLI may not clearly foretell a market decline." I completely agree with their assessment, which is why I use it as one of the hundreds of other indicators I monitor and why I talk about it here at the website.

In both investing and trading, many of you would love to have a simple & reliable indicator to tell you when to buy and sell. If life were only that easy! Speculation in the market is never that easy, nor would I really want it to be. If it were that simple, trading would be like shooting fish in a barrel, and I see absolutely no fun in doing that. I do this for a living, because I love and respect the challenge and the sooner you realize that every indicator is created by a human, and is therefore fallible, the better off you will be.

Buybacks Are Back, But...

Buybacks are starting to come back again. In the past week alone, we've seen announcements from the likes of Yahoo (YHOO), Applied Materials (AMAT), & Bank of America (BAC). While I much rather see buybacks than mergers & acquisitions, like everything else it is only one tiny factor to consider.

Kill All The Lawyers

"The first thing we do," said the character in Shakespeare's Henry VI, is "kill all the lawyers."

Contrary to popular belief, the proposal was not designed to restore sanity to commercial life. Rather, it was intended to eliminate those who might stand in the way of a contemplated revolution. Thus, the saying often underscores the important role that lawyers can play in society.

It is easy to forget that lawyers do enable us to fight injustice. Unfortunately, that comes frequently at a very hefty price. While I certainly understand and agree with eliminating frivolous lawsuits of every kind, the real devil is always in the details. Do you really trust a pro-business, pro-special-interest, pro-lobby-focused government to decide which lawsuits can be brought?

As Matt Haughey points out at his blog, lawsuits frequently kill innovation. However, they are still necessary evils because if you leave corporations, businesses, and yes, even doctors left unchecked, great harm will always follow.

I'm not saying this because I'm "pro" lawyer or because I've been to law school. I just think it is too easy to just blame lawyers for all of our problems. As someone once said - "the road to hell is paved with good intentions." Many of the actions taken by the government of late, while being grounded in "good intentions," have disastrous long-term consequences. In a society that looks for quick and easy solutions without having the big picture in focus, I'm more than a little concerned we are taking the wrong approach to a variety of challenges we currently face.

Now that I've finally got that off my chest, back to the market I go.