The Kirk Report

Happy Friday

Good morning. Premarket futures are up following a better than expected February CPI and high expectations for big rate cuts at next week's Fed meeting. There's not a lot of news other than the CPI grabbing the market's attention.

Premarket gainers: TTHI, SCA, WSCI, TMA, SHPGY, BA, ZUMZ, COGO, COIN, LSCC, PWER, JASO, ESLR, TRA, SOLF, ARCI, CROX, VM, and QGEN.

Premarket losers: IFON, STEM, CX, PSUN, ANN, HOG, UCBH, and ARO.

At 10:AM we have a report on consumer sentiment and at 1PM Bernanke will speak about "fostering sustainable homeownership" at a meeting in Washington. Bush is also scheduled to speak about the economy but is not expected to issue any new stimulus ideas.

Fridays haven't been good to the market recently, but with +2% gains in the major market averages this week and a Fed meeting to look forward to next week, this looks to be the exception. After all, this morning's inflation data was exactly what the market wanted to hear. Have a great Friday!

Hump Day

Good morning. As everyone tries to figure out how effective the latest action by the Fed will affect the credit markets and economy, premarket futures are pointing to a lower open.

A Wall Street Journal report suggesting that home-equity loans are the next big problem and a profit warning from Humana (HUM) are also in focus. Markets overseas are higher with the exception of China.

Premarket gainers: TWTI, JASO, CFSG, SIMO, TMA, DNDN, HDL, QTWW, CSIQ, DMND, SPWR, TASR, TLCV, MBLX, TTWO, CPHD, GOLD, JCG, FLDR, and CXSP.

Premarket losers: PGNX, DIVX, BLUD, HUM, CPHD, KLAC, DRYS, VIP, UNH, WLP, PKOH, KLAC, and ESRX.

After the opening bell, we only have the weekly oil inventories at 10:30. With oil futures above $108 a barrel it will be interesting to see Wall Street's reaction.

As I said last night, it is not unusual to see some consolidation after the kind of explosive upside move we say yesterday. What we don't want to do is fall back in to the same downtrend that we've seen over the past couple of weeks. A test of S&P 1310 and then sideways consolidation if not another push upward by the end of the day would be the most bullish thing the market could do. We'll see if they can do it.

Have a great hump day!

More Fed Speculation

Good morning. Premarket futures are up as speculation intensifies that the Fed will come in with emergency action before next week.

As hedge funds reel from margin calls and the FBI opens up an investigation of Countrywide Financial (CFC), we don't have a lot of positives or new data to work from. Along with sizeable losses in overseas (especially in China ahead of their own CPI report tomorrow), commodities are also under pressure (metals & oil). The one piece of good news comes from McDonalds (MCD) who reported strong worldwide sales.

Premarket gainers: SPPI, SEED, NLY, TSRA, MCD, TCM, ACLS, SOLF, FSLR, and ANGO.

Premarket losers: KERX, TMA, ABK, CRAI, LVLT, CFC, CRIS, CIEN, MICC, GOLD, and ARRS.

This week’s calendar is fairly light with the market mainly looking ahead to next Tuesday’s FOMC meeting. According to Fed Funds futures, the market is now fully discounting a 75 bp rate cut to 2.25% at next week's meeting. We also have the Texas Instruments (TXN) mid-quarter update later today.

Let's make it a great week!

Super Tuesday

Good morning. It's Super Tuesday and premarket futures are showing a negative bias for the open.

Weakness in commodities (gold and oil) and semiconductors after National Semi (NSM) cut its sales forecast have dampened expectations along with losses in overseas markets. The ISM nonmanufacturing index also fell sharply.

Premarket gainers: GTCB, SPF, SVN, NTCT, YTEC, TMA, ILMN, SVVS, SVNT, HOT, SOHU, GERN, TBSI, AMKR, CE, MOS, POT, PRGO, ARTG, SNDK, BRCM, LVS, TOL, VCLK, MTW, PHM, HOV, and DIS.

Premarket losers: PEG, SIRF, RMKR, WOOF, ARMHY, MLM, SNCR, CPSL, LOGI, SPRD, CS, GRMN, BSX, NYX, NSM, JRJC, ERIC, ASML, PAAS, FDRY, and EBAY.

Along with more earnings news, at 10:AM Fed Jeffrey Lacker will speak about the U.S. economic outlook at a bankers luncheon in Charleston, West Virginia.

We need for the market to find some level of support and see some new buy interest develop in the pullback while continued consolidation, especially within areas of the market that were overcooked in the bounce, would generally be healthy. To be sure, there is always a fine line between textbook consolidation and moving back into bear market sell mode following a dramatic V-shaped reversal. Today will offer at least some clue to the bulls’ resolve now that the “Fed will save us trade” has lost a little bit of its mojo.

Have a good day!

Stagflation

Good morning. Much like yesterday, we're set for a weak open following the higher than expected CPI. Consumer prices rose +0.8% in November the fastest pace for more than two years.

To make matters worse, we have a report from ComScore that hints toward a disappointing online retail sales, Greenspan issuing a warning that the risk of a recession is increasing, and news that Citigroup (C) plans to bail out some SIVs. Like yesterday, most overseas markets are lower.

Premarket gainers: LUM, ESLR, RIGL, BMRN, BMTI, ENCY, EXEL, EXAS, MELI, CBAK, LEAP, PEIX, CISG, DSCM, BMTI, ONXX, MELI, FTEK, CSUN, CAVM, ADPI, CISG, Q, and HOKU.

Premarket losers: NOVL, NBIX, BDK, TIER, CHINA, BBL, LIFC, ACGY, GRMN, CPSL, DNDN, AMZN, ZQK, WCI, ACH, BHP, and XTEX.

Today will provide us with some sense on how motivated the sellers are amid signs of stagflation. For the time being, 1460 in the S&P looks like an important level to break if were are going to see any true downward momentum after the opening bell. Have a great day!

Mixed News & Poor Sentiment

Good morning. We're set for lower market this morning as weakness in global markets weigh heavily on sentiment.

For the most part, investors are sorting through some mixed news. While we have a better than expected report form Lehman Brothers (LEH) and strong report on retail sales, a hotter than expected PPI inflation report hasn't sat particularly well with those expecting more help from the Fed.

Premarket gainers: SVNT, RIGL, DEPO, MATK, ADCT, PSPT, CTDC, GXDX, JRCC, KMGB, JOSB, UMBF, ESLR, CYNO, DOW, JOSB, and XMSR.

Premarket losers: NBIX, BIIB, SCSS, AYSY, ADPI, WSTL, MALL, MICC, VITL, CHA, BHP, LIHR, DLB, CYNO, CKR, ELN, COST, POT, CHNR, SOLF, RIO, CFC, ACH, QCOM, COST, ELN, HQS, DRYS, CSIQ, and RFMD.

It's a new day and I'm looking for reasons (any reasons) why I'm wrong in thinking that lower prices are ahead. With the Fed in the rearview mirror, it will be important to see how the market reacts to both good and bad news over the next few days. In addition, keep an eye on those overseas markets for hints of stability and strength in any recovery attempt we see near-term. Have a terrific Thursday!

Actions Of Desperation

Good morning. Premarket futures are in rally mode on speculation that the Fed is preparing to unveil new plans to boost liquidity. Such actions, if taken, following yesterday's disappointment will most likely irritate market participants even further unless the Fed really does produce some shock and awe to restore its credibility and do it soon. In spite of this speculation, global markets traded lower even though not with the same level of disgust we saw after the yesterday's decision.

Premarket gainers: NEXT, CRME, NUVO, CRIS, MTW, CSIQ, ACAD, GERN, IOM, SCON, LEAP, MPG, LNUX, CEDU, ACTG, SOLF, CPSL, SNCR, CHNR, GERN, XING, DRYS, SPWR, FMCN, TBSI, ESLR, PCU, FRO, SMSI, GIGM, JASO, MICC, FCEL, BIIB, CSUN, RGLD, GRMN, ZIXI, and CROX.

Premarket losers: FRPT, UNTD, COO, OFI, ADY, ULTA, NUAN, FBTX, NWK, and AKAM.

Along with comments by Alan Greenspan this morning, we have the reports on business inventories but this market will remain held captive to the Fed. Clearly, these rumors suggest this morning that some were caught leaning the wrong way and they're praying for the opportunity to get out of some positions at higher prices. As you know from reading other thoughts on the Fed, it isn't unusual for the market to bounce around for a few days (if not produce a counter trend rally attempt) in order to figure out what the Fed's action really means to the market. The stakes are even higher now than ever before because we have only 13 trading days left of 2007.

Be careful out there and resist the temptation to trade every swing we are likely to see from now until year-end. From premarket trading, it clearly looks like the same speculative targets are in back in play - namely China, Solar, and Shipping and those who have to grind it out will be using these groups to press for performance. Take care.

Fed Day

Good morning. Premarket futures are in positive territory as investors await the next interest rate cut at 2:15PM by the Federal Reserve. For the most part, the newswires are fairly quiet this morning with a smattering of corporate news and economist chatter.

Premarket gainers: GNSS, FCEL, TRID, CTIC, PRGO, AVNR, NUVO, MOGN, SMSI, PCTI, GTS, NFI, GY, SAI, TXN, GME, WCG, TELOZ, CELG, HOKU, SDTH, CPSL, TBSI, DSX, BX, MLNM, SOLF, BRCM, ETFC, and CSUN.

Premarket losers: WM, MEDX, NCS, HRB, JCDA, PANC, PLL, WM, ACGY, CRDC, QGEN, and SBUX.

Along with the Fed, we have a report on wholesale inventories at 10:AM and some weekly retail sales reports to look through. Fed days are notoriously difficult to trade and I don't plan to. Have a great Tuesday!

Get Ready For The Fed

Good morning. Premarket futures are positive as investors get ready for the Fed.

Strength in overseas markets, a $10 billion dollar write down by UBS, a strong report from MCD, some M&A activity (see ARXT, PLTE, and MOGN), and reports on online retail sales are in focus. The pending home sales report for October is the only item on today's economic calendar and it will come out at 10:AM.

Premarket gainers: MOGN, LDK, ENER, URRE, NVAX, ARTX, GTCB, CNTF, SGEN, OSIR, VIP, KEG, HRBN, CSUN, CSIQ, SOLF, ESLR, GNSS, ASTI, NICE, SEED, FFIV, MLNM, MR, CPSL, CC, NICE, HOKU, DRYS, DSX, GRMN, GIGM, and PLCM.

Premarket losers: AMC, HEB, LTRE, SGMO, HYTM, NAVI, KCI, ADLR, RSTO, DLB, CELG, RIO, IMAX, TRID, and AMGN.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show there is a 74% chance the Fed will trim its target for overnight loans between banks by a quarter percentage point to 4.25% tomorrow and the vast majority of the other bets are for a half-point reduction. Traders will be watching for follow-through buying interest to develop this week and for moving averages like the 50 day on the major market averages to hold no matter what the news is tomorrow. Let's make it a great week!

94,000 Jobs

Good morning. The jobs report came in above expectations with 94,000 jobs and a reading of 4.7% unemployment with upward revisions of prior months. So far the reaction in premarket futures is a positive one although it does put in a large Fed rate cut next week in jeopardy.

Premarket gainers: IMAX, SPWR, ICOC, SNPS, LQDT, SIRO, JBL, PZZA, HANS, GOT, FXP, HOKU, PBR, FRO, ACTL, GEOY, WYNN, ALGN, CSIQ, CPSL, CHNR, PCU, SOLF, INFY, DRYS, and RIMM.

Premarket losers: SWHC, PALM, MVSN, GPOR, GIL, GMTN, EXFO, CTEL, FMD, VMED, ACTG, CHL, GMST, FXI, COF, and JADE.

Today’s trade will have everything to do with the employment situation and the upcoming Fed even though we have a report on consumer sentiment at 10:AM.

Admittedly, I am surprised to see the premarket futures rally after this news and I’m skeptical of seeing a lot of strength following the jobs report. We’ll soon see if my doubts are justified by the market’s performance. Have a great Friday!

Retail Sales, Subprime, Rates & Jobs

Good morning. Premarket futures have been volatile (turning from positive to just negative ahead of the open) and most likely suggestive of the day ahead.

News that Bush will freeze interest rates for up to five years for some subprime borrowers and an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (the European Central Bank kept interest rates at 4%) are topping the headlines. In addition, investors are also sorting through some mixed retail same-store sales (which include data for Black Friday), falling oil prices, and jobless claims along with the Monster Employment Index which sort of offsets yesterday's positive ADP employment report.

Premarket gainers: HOKU, NFI, ALOY, ENPT, GME, PTIE, JWN, DRRX, CLWT, NOVC, SGMO, BEAV, THRX, RBS, CPSL, JOSB, PLCE, VIP, FMD, XING, CBAK, VOLV, HCBK, MTLK, GIGM, CROX, ETFC, KONG, and SOLF.

Premarket losers: ZUMZ, SRP, GII, FRPT, DRIV, LMRA, ACGY, ANSS, CMTL, CHL, and CHNR.

Along with the Bush announcement, Kroszner will testify to the house on housing issues. Yet, I think for today retail sales will be the primary focus. As I've said before, more bad news on the consumer spending front is not what we want to see right now even though expectations are already fairly low.

Buckle up and prepare yourself for two difficult days revolving around the jobs report and all of the noise that comes with it. If you don't need to trade, this is probably a good time to tune out and let things settle out before pulling the trigger on new situations.

Chock-full Of Data

Good morning. Unlike the other days this week, we're starting with a positive bias this morning.

Strength in overseas markets for the most part have produced this morning's optimism along with positive analyst calls on two Dow components - United Technologies (UTX) & Intel (INTC) - and some better than expected earnings news from a few retailers like Guess? (GES). In addition, a stronger than expected report on 3Q productivity and lower labor costs have helped. A large, but expected dividend cut at Fannie Mae (FNM) and a much stronger than expected ADP employment report have tempered some of that optimism.

Premarket gainers: ADLR, SOLF, SOHU, UXG, CPST, PSS, VSNT, GES, HOTT, RIMM, CTV, WDC, DSW, LDK, SOHU, CY, JSDA, IFX, IDCC, SNTA, JRJC, CPSL, CHNR, RVBD, FFIV, HOKU, PBR, SEED, INTC, DRYS, EXM, DSX, CTDC, CHINA, SPWR, CMGI, and ESLR

Premarket losers: TOPT, CMCSA, PLAB, CHS, CHTR, CSIQ, NTRS, XMSR, and GOLD

This morning is chalk-full of data starting at 10:AM with the release of reports on Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey, and the Pending Home Sales Index. Then we have the EIA Petroleum Status report at 10:30 which takes on more importance following news that OPEC will not increase production.

At the moment, if you're bullish you want to see even more bad news, especially Friday's jobs report. As expectations vary for the Fed's next move, Wall Street needs to believe that Bernanke is not behind the credit curve and they don't want the Fed to have any room to not cut rates by at least 50 basis points next week in addition to taking even more aggressive measures to firm up the credit markets.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

A Day Fit For The Bears

Good morning. Expectations for another strong Tuesday are low and instead we are facing a very weak open for the market.

Analyst downgrades are sweeping the Street this morning from the largest firms including Goldman Sachs (GS). Add that to disappointing guidance from Nokia (NOK) and Merck (MRK), more fear over SIV exposure, uncertainty over next week's Fed meeting, and weakness in overseas markets and you have a day fit for the bears.

Premarket gainers: JMBA, PWRD, PZE, EPCT, SEED, ARW, DELL, CRMT, MBLX, CPKI, ATVI, MOS, NKE, PAY, PCR, LKQX, and INFY.

Premarket losers: NFI, TRMP, XMSR, SIRI, NOK, PVH, BCS, DRYS, HOLX, ERIC, CSUN, ISLE, JRJC, CROX, GOLD, RFMD, ORCL, RIMM, MDU, DSX, EXM, ARBA, MRK, BPHX, RIG, STKL, and AAPL.

Unfortunately, we have no data and no Fedspeak today so if the bulls are going to fend off the bear attack this morning they have to reach down from within to muster up some courage. The same levels I mentioned last night are in play this morning - S&P 1425 to 1450. Ideally, we want to see a test of that area and then some market strength (and then a late day recovery). Given the lack of any meaningful positives to work with, that's going to be a tall order.

December Stock Market Trends

Good morning. We're set for a relatively slow start this morning following mixed overseas markets and a snowstorm in the Northeast. Premarket futures have been volatile throughout the morning and currently point toward a mixed open.

There's a lot of noise out there this morning in the credit markets concerning SIVs, CDOs, and E Trade Financial Corp (ETFC). In addition with lower oil prices, we also have some M&A activity in Activision (ATVI) and more Fedspeak from Rosengren who sees growth "well below potential" for the next two quarters. Along with Yellen later today, Henry Paulson will speak about the housing and subprime at 10:30AM. We also have the ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:AM and motor vehicle sales at 4:PM.

Premarket gainers: ATVI, BE, STEM, UAPH, SNTS, ONT, AMPL, ERTS, STEM, IBM, CNTF, SNCR, SXE, TTWO, SLT, VDSI, MTL, SNDA, DBTK, NFLX, NINE, DLB, XMSR, and FRPT.

Premarket losers: ETFC, PRKR, RIMM, PAY, UFS, GNW, IVZ, EBAY, ACGY, and AMGN.

According to Stock Trader's Almanac December is the #2 best month of the year for the market. Since 1950, the Dow's average gain is +1.7% and there have been only two down Decembers in the last 14 pre-election years. CXO provides this calendar to show how the month tends to perform - i.e. a strong start, some weakness, and then strength around the holidays:

With the Fed meeting on Tuesday, December 11th, this week will very much be spent on debating what the Fed will do next week as well as how the economy is holding up now (i.e. credit crunch) and what affect the Fed will have on the economy in the 4th quarter. Oil prices will also remain in focus with an OPEC meeting this week. Have a great day!

Uncle Ben, Once Again

Good morning. Bernanke's speech last night confirmed expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates next month, if not before, and news that the government and major banks are close to an agreement that would freeze rates on certain subprime loans have created a very positive tone in premarket trading. Permarket futures are currently indicating a +1% gap open across the board.

In other news, October personal income came in at +0.2%, spending was +0.3%, and the Core PCE was +1.9% year-over-year - all mostly inline with expectations. Overseas markets were higher, the dollar has remained stronger than one would expect, and Dell (DELL) missed its earnings expectations.

Premarket gainers: SEAC, WNR, JRJC, SOLF, TBSI, DRYS, JCG, STEM, LGF, SLT, CFC, FRE, C, OVTI, ETFC, AU, CRXL, LDK, WM, CTIC, CMED, BIDU, CSUN, NCOC, ASTI, PCU, CPSL, FFIV, GROW, BIDZ, GOLD, JASO, MOS, GS, UAUA, SPWR, MA, GRMN, SDTH, and RFMD.

Premarket losers: DELL, ITWO, FRPT, COMS, CSIQ, MOGN, DIVX, ACGY, BIG, and MENT.

Along with the Chicago PMI at 9:45AM and Construction Spending at 10:AM, we are graced with even more Fedspeak today from Plosser at 10AM, Kroszner at 1:40PM, and Poole after the market is closed.

On the upside, we have overhead resistance looming large at the 1490 level in the S&P 500 which you would think is going to be tough resistance level to overcome given the fast and furious rally we've seen since Tuesday. Yet, to doubt this market has not been the right trade this week. Have a great Friday!

Genuine Skepticism

Good morning. Yesterday's optimism has faded a bit and premarket futures are pointing toward a lower open.

Other than pure profit-taking and genuine skepticism over the last two days, weighing on sentiment include higher oil prices following a pipeline explosion in Minnesota, a bad report from Sears (SHLD), higher than expected jobless claims, and an inline GDP. E Trade (ETFC) is also making the news again with an outside investment and CEO change. Overseas markets were mostly higher in response to yesterday's gains on Wall Street.

Premarket gainers: REGN, ETFC, SOLF, SIGM, VMW, BIDZ, TWP, TIVO, LULU, WCG, PTT, SUF, VIP, ISSI, FRED, NOV, DLTR, BCSI, FRO, CPSL, IDSA, NILE, GME, DELL, SNDA, and DRYS.

Premarket losers: SHLD, ACGY, MW, RCI, DEIX, WEDC, GLDN, HSC, JAS, ASML, and GOLD.

At 10:AM we have reports on new home sales and the help wanted index. After that, the market will be wondering what Ben Bernanke and Fed Governor Fred Mishkin say in their speeches after the closing bell. Obviously, there's hope and expectation that they'll indicate a more friendlier and flexible Fed headed into December that will give us a boost tomorrow, but again we have to take this market one day at a time. Just like yesterday 1450 in the S&P is a key level to target in any pullback.

Have a terrific Thursday!

Fedspeak & More

Good morning. Premarket futures are pointing to a positive start following comments by Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn who said that monetary policy must be nimble, pragmatic, and flexible. Just exactly what the market wants to hear.

In other news, a weaker than expected report on durable goods, a report that online sales are setting records, and speculation that Citigroup (C) will be bought out is in play. The dollar is up this morning while overseas markets were mixed and commodity prices are under pressure.

Premarket gainers: VRGY, MLHR, JRJC, CTEL, TBSI, DSX, DRYS, EXM, CPHD, TASR, C, AYI, SPWR, ETFC, TKC, BCSI, CFC, NSANY, ADLR, AMZN, ATVI, CRNT, MICC, POT, CY, VRSN, CSIQ, GRMN, BIDU, GIGM, and CRDN.

Premarket losers: BIDZ, MRVL, SNIC, ILE, BRLC, SMTC, SBUX, CENT, UTI, CMO, GA, PBY, BWS, SNDA, DBRN, and WFC.

After the open, we have a report on existing home sales at 10:AM, more Fedspeak from Fisher at 1:PM, and the Beige Book at 2:PM. The bulls really need to put the pressure on if they're going to gain any respect in this market. Another big positive day certainly will help, especially if they can push above 1450 in the S&P 500.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Trust Issues

Good morning. After dropping very near the August close lows in S&P 500 yesterday, premarket futures are showing some cautious optimism.

News that Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is investing $7.5 billion in Citigroup (C) has helped even though clearly the bulls have major trust issues with this market. Overseas markets are mixed with commodities again under pressure this morning.

Premarket gainers: ATVI, PHM, SPLS, VNDA, KMP, SPWR, SCON, BBND, BPHX, MA, RIG, DKS, ANSS, MON, RTLX, FCEL, BOOM, TASR, ESRX, CSIQ, JRJC, XING, ACGY, CREE, GOLD, TBSI, UAUA, BOOM, BCSI, and MICC.

Premarket losers: ABB, BIDZ, IRIS, BARE, NVLS, NOV, and QGEN.

After the opening bell, market direction will depend on the consumer confidence report at 10:AM along with Fedspeak from Plosser at 12:20PM and Evans at 1:30PM. Expectations are low for these market movers, so any good news on any front will be welcomed. If they can't build on a positive start this morning and we see a failure at 1400 in the S&P 500, the March lows come back into play at 1375. I suspect that the bulls will do what they can to hold and bounce from these levels plus or minus 15 points in the S&P 500. We shall soon see.

Right now the market market needs a sign (any sign) that things will improve and that the pessimism that reigns now is unjustified.

Retail News Lifts Sentiment

Good morning. We're set to begin the last trading week of November on a positive note.

A rally in overseas markets on news that U.S. consumers were spending more money than expected have sent markets higher. According to ShopperTrak, there was a +8.3% gain in sales on Black Friday, higher than their estimated 4-5% increase. Although shoppers seemed to spend less per person, the markets are relieved that the news wasn't as bad as feared. More reports and commentary about how the retail sales are faring is expected throughout the day.

Premarket gainers: GLYT, HOKU, CFSG, ORCC, BIDZ, SKIL, ONT, QGEN, GOLD, MICC, GLDN, TKC, CHL, VIP, CREE, CC, TGEN, KNOL, BRLC, OVTI, JASO, JRJC, CPSL, GRMN, and CSIQ.

Premarket losers: NWL, VVTV, FXP, ETFC, FMCN, SLXP, NG, RSTO, and NUAN.

With the exception of some analysts rating changes, reports of job cuts at Citigroup (C), and credit concerns at HSBC, there's not a lot to focus on and that's probably a good thing. In fact, no economic reports or Fed speeches are scheduled today and it isn't really until the middle of this week before we receive any news about how the economy may be doing now beyond relatively high speculation over holiday retail sales.

The combination of oversold conditions, positive news on any front, and end-of-the-month window dressing should help the markets stabilize, if not rally this week. The only thing that will derail it, in my view, is more trouble in the credit markets that goes beyond what is already anticipated and/or bad news on the retail front. There's a fear now that some companies may have delayed bad news until after Thanksgiving so traders will be monitoring the newswires very closely for any indication that fear is valid. Likewise, if nothing new big or bad happens, they'll turn their sights to expectations for a end-of-year rebound with stops set at last Wednesday's lows.

Let's make it a great week!

A Flight To Safety

Good morning. As Americans prepare for the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, markets around the world are under heavy pressure. Record oil prices and concerns over the unwinding of the carry trade dominate. Not helping matters here include some disappointing reports from retailers (see ANF, CHRS, LTD). As a clear sign of a flight to safety, yields on the 10-year Treasury notes fell below 4% for the first time since September 2005.

Premarket gainers: STEM, CMED, DE, CPSL, IKN, NGAS, GLNG, CXSP, ASML, and ASYS.

Premarket losers: TSL, JRJC, SOLF, XFML, SHLD, JASO, VRTX, CSUN, CSIQ, CHL, DRYS, ERIC, WFMI, TASR, SPWR, TBSI, ESLR, FTEK, SIRO, CFC, BIDU, FFH, CF, CC, ANF, CROX, GRMN, RIMM, MRVL, DNDN, NVDA, and JNPR.

Along with more rumors of emergency rate cuts and the like, we should be prepared for more volatility and thin trading volumes as reports on consumer sentiment and leading indicators come out at 10:AM and the weekly EIA Petro report at 10:30. The bond market closes at 1:PM. Let's see how the market reacts to this morning's economic data and any rumors that surface between now and the close.

Turnaround Tuesday

Good morning. It seems like investors are in a better mood this morning. Frankly, it wouldn't be difficult given the way we've started out the week.

Some good earnings news from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Medtronic (MDT), and Nordstrom (JWN) have helped get things started even though not all news is good news this morning. Case in point, take note of the $2 billion dollar loss at Freddie Mac (FRE) and the $6 billion dollar loss at a Goldman Sachs' (GS) hedge fund.

Meanwhile, October housing starts came in stronger than expected and oil prices are up while the dollar hits fresh lows. Overseas markets were higher and that has certainly contributed to the positive bias.

Premarket gainers: BCSI, AMRN, DKS, GLGC, RSTO, JWN, ACTG, AIXG, ACH, CHA, WCG, SHI, HPQ, GMO, SIGM, NOK, EXM, DRYS, RMBS, FCEL, XFML, GLNG, BPHX, JRJC, CTDC, CSIQ, CTRP, NICE, RIMM, and CRNT.

Premarket losers: FRE, FNM, GME, FMCN, CALD, GA, DISH, NGAS, HRAY, KONG, and EGLT.

At 10:AM we have an update on the State Street Investor Confidence but the FOMC minutes at 2PM are today's big event. The minutes will be under more scrutiny due to Bernanke's promises to expand the Fed's forecasts to increase transparency and continued hope for more rate cuts. Fed funds futures still show a very high expectation (over 80%) for another rate cut at the December 11th meeting.

One thing we don't want to see today is a failure to hold and to build on this morning's positive start. Needless to say, the FOMC minutes this afternoon make for a tricky trading day and much like yesterday volume should be lower across the board and even more so after today. Have a terrific Tuesday.

Thanksgiving Week

Good morning. We're set for a soft start as the market finds little to be thankful for this morning.

Topping the headlines include the fact that more economists now predict recession, analysts worry about the retail spending, and China clamps down further on bank lending sending overseas markets lower. Along with all of that ugly news, traders are also concerned about the unwinding of the yen carry trade. Meanwhile, oil prices are also moving higher after OPEC said it won't make any changes on output.

Premarket gainers: NTOL, PHRM, DISH, ELNK, HLCS, ETFC, HRAY, CSUN, MCRL, BIDZ, STP, CRNT, YHOO, GME, ONXX, and CSIQ.

Premarket losers: LOW, DFS, LOGI, AAUK, BHP, UBS, BIDU, ABB, ACH, C, FNM, DRYS, ACGY, CSUN, VOLV, and TASR.

At 1PM we have the housing market index which is expected to be a market mover ahead of tomorrow's reports on housing starts, investor confidence and the FOMC minutes.

The same support levels we were looking at last week, like S&P 1440 remain in the forefront this week as well. I don't have to tell you that traditionally this week tends to reward the bulls and some weakness today will set up some rebound trades for the days around Thanksgiving holiday. The next two days most likely will be the most challenging of the four trading days ahead. Let's make the most of it!

Thanksgiving Hope

Good morning. Things are looking up in the early going and premarket futures indicate we'll see a sizable gain at the start.

The hope that yesterday's selloff was a successful test of Monday's lows (S&P 1440), the high expectation that the market will rally during Thanksgiving week from oversold conditions, and today's option expiration are having positive influences. Also helping out are some positive news from tech leaders Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Garmin (GRMN).

Premarket gainers: GRMN, CSIQ, CNTF, STAR, DRYS, RMBS, PWER, CTEL, RIO, EXAS, DSCO, GIGM, ESLR, AKNS, SIMC, MPEL, DSX, KLIC, ARII, ANX, TBSI, POT, GCA, ETFC, HPQ, SPWR, YHOO, SPWR, CBST, BIDU, EJ, RIMM, VCLK, and CSCO.

Premarket losers: ACTG, NCTY, SBUX, HBAN, DITC, ADSK, CHRD, SLXP, STV, MSCC, and ACAS.

After the open we have the report on industrial production at 9:15. Fannie Mae (FNM) will also hold a Q&A this morning to discuss its accounting procedures and the housing market. While overseas markets are lower (in reaction to weakness here yesterday), commodities are moving higher across the board.

This week's highs and lows will remain the levels to watch as we go forward. Options expriations are challenging to trade so pick your spots carefully.

If all goes well, I should have the November Q&A posted by the closing bell. Have a wonderful Friday.

Bad News & The Unknowns

Good morning. We're looking at a lower start to the day following weakness in overseas markets, an inline CPI, higher than expected jobless claims, disappointing news from J.C. Penney (JCP) and Applied Materials (AMAT), along with problems at a GE bond fund.

Premarket gainers: TSTC, FUQI, KLIC, TATTF, AKNS, FCSX, CSIQ, VCLK, INSP, AMLN, NSTK, GMCR, ETFC, AMZN, NTAP, BRCM, NOVC, CRNT, BID, GRMN, LOCM, KMX, ADLS, CY, STP, UVE, and FSLR.

Premarket losers: SINA, CRXL, GOLD, DEEP, SOHU, JCP, DRYS, AMAT, BEAS, TASR, NFI, KUN, BHP, FRO, TOA, IVZ, BMD, and SIMC.

At 10:30 we have the Weekly Oil Inventories report and the Philadelphia Fed Survey at noon. The market will continue to focus on trying to figure out the collateral damage from the subprime disaster with rumors flying that many more cockroaches will be discovered. Markets can deal with bad news, but have a devil of a time making calculated bets based on the unknowns.

In turn, traders will be watching 1440 in the S&P 500 in today's weakness (stops will be placed near that level) and, because of options expiration tomorrow, we should expect to see some choppy trading after the first hour or so. Have a good day.

Rally On

Good morning. Following yesterday's impressive reversal, the bulls are feeling good this morning.

A benign PPI and a soft, but inline report on retail sales have sent premarket futures screaming higher. With this data, Bernanke is free to lower rates again - at least that's the perception. Along with very strong overseas markets, commodities are also moving higher as well as markets around the world which are in rally mode.

Premarket gainers: CSIQ, SSRX, ETFC, CDS, NSTK, JRJC, INOD, KALU, AKNS, NPSP, IMOS, DSX, TASR, CHINA, MCZ, XING, LFC, CHL, BIDU, CSUN, ESLR, OVTI, DWSN, SWPR, RIMM, GRMN, ORCL, CROX, CTRP, SNCR, FWLT, DRYS, and AAPL.

Premarket losers: DAKT, LULU, CNTF, ORIT, GIGM, EXM, LZB, MCRL, BDE, FRPT, and JSDA.

If my read on the premarket futures is correct, the resistance at 1490 in the S&P will be taken out at the open which would be impressive. Then, it will be a matter of holding that level on any weakness as we navigate the rest of the day.

After the open, we have a report on business inventories at 10:AM, the weekly oil inventories at 10:30 and some Fedspeak. Have a wonderful Wednesday!

A Little Good News

Good morning. Premarket futures point to at least a positive start following unexpected good news from Wal-Mart (WMT) which reported better than expected earnings and guidance above estimates. Not a lot of good news is expected this week, so that news has helped lift depressed spirits a bit this morning. Overseas markets were mixed and gold and oil have continued their pullbacks.

Premarket gainers: NKTR, FOSL, JRJC, BIDZ, FSLR, ETFC, MDII, FOSL, AAPL, RIMM, WMT, CFC, TSL, FFHL, CFSG, HOKU, CY, SOLF, SPWR, ESLR, GLW, TBSI, DRYS, DSX, AMTD, JASO, BPHX, MICC, SLT, RBS, GS, GROW, CROX, YHOO, SPWR, CHL, and TASR.

Premarket losers: LMC, DAI, SCON, AFFX, SONA, TKC, HNSN, and ADBE.

At 10:AM a report on pending home sales is expected to show a 2% drop in September. More importantly, we have some big inflation data later this week will affect both trading and prevailing sentiment. The market desperately wants to believe that the Fed is on their side so any good news on the inflation front shouldn't be underestimated.

For today, I suspect few will trust this positive start following yesterday's terrible action. That said, I still expect to see a lot of reflexive bounces out there and short-term trading opportunities as a result. In my view, whether some leadership stocks (especially in tech, solar, & China) are able to hold their initial gains should provide us with an early tell to whether this positive start is another bull trap.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Looking For Stability & Support

Good morning. After last week's plunge, Wall Street is looking and hoping for a relief rally to begin this week. For today, however, trading is expected to be on the light side primarily because of Veterans Day, with the government bond markets closed and little economic and earnings data to ponder.

Overall, it has been a quiet morning so far. Investors seem to be focused on lower oil prices due to OPEC rumors, carry over weakness in overseas markets from last week's meltdown, some M&A activity (see Cognos (COGN)), and continued concern over the financials due to E Trade (ETFC).

Premarket gainers: COGN, SDTH, VDSI, MBT, BCS, IIJI, RBS, UBS, PCLN, RTP, BHP, CROX, VIVO, SPWR, JASO, ASUR, and ARAY.

Premarket losers: ETFC, GPCB, BX, NOK, DISH, FXI, HMY, FXI, NCC, GOLD, ASTI, XFML, CREE, JNPR, and JBLU.

The first step we need to see is simply for the market to find some stability and support to work from in the near-term. 1450 in the S&P is a starting point and we'll need to watch careful how the market responds to more bad news this week. At this point, not a lot of good news is expected. Have a great day!

Financials & Consumer Sentiment

Good morning. After yesterday's final hour rebound, investors have been served a stark reminder this morning that the problems in the financials are far from over.

Bad news from both Barclays (BCS) and Wachovia (WB) top the headlines with growing expectations that we're going to hear a lot more of the same. As you know, investors are trying to quickly get their arms around how exactly to value these firms but it isn't easy.

Beyond the financials, investors will remain fixated on the tech space. Yesterday's significant pullback in many of the tech leaders is a red flag that trouble is spreading throughout the market. How investors will treat these pullbacks, either as another buying opportunity or whether we see them sell into any strength will provide us with an important clue to what to expect from the market itself in the short-term. Bottom line - continue to watch the leaders.

Premarket gainers: PCLN, NVDA, PCR, DLB, SCON, HTCH, IPGP, DROOY, EZPW, ZINC, PDII, SAPE, KNXA, BKR, and FORM.

Premarket losers: MDRX, CLWR, LEAP, JASO, JSDA, GMKT, NDAQ, COGO, QCOM, CSUN, ESLR, CSIQ, CREE, CRDC, CMED, VCLK, ASTI, SOLF, SOHU, EXM, ACGY, ALVR, NETC, DRYS, FTK, SPWR, CRNT, DSX, RIMM, CROX, CNTY, CMED, JBLU, SNDA, BSQR, DTSI, GMKT, KNOT, and TBSI.

At 10AM we have the consumer sentiment index and this report will be a market mover. The bulls continue to insist that consumer spending remains strong (October retail sales were weak because of the weather) so any new evidence of weak consumer confidence will not be viewed as positively as before. In the past, bad news meant another rate cut, but with the recent Fedspeak the bulls currently fear they no longer have the Fed watching their back. That fear may be misplaced, but it is big part of the current perception and why the market is having a tough time right now.

Have a good Friday and be smart out there today!

Mixed Open Ahead of Bernanke

Good morning. M&A activity in the metals industry (RTP), more earnings reports (CSCO, F, AIG, NWS, HANS, TOL, & FSLR), and monthly retail data are keeping investors very busy this morning.

At 10AM Bernanke will give his economic outlook to the Joint Economic Committee in Washington. For what it is worth, in spite of similar cries for interest rate cuts overseas, the European Central Bank left rates alone this morning. Premarket futures have been volatile and currently point to a mixed open.

Premarket gainers: FSLR, RTP, TRLG, FOLD, ESLR, HEES, JASO, SRVY, ENER, AAUK, ASTIZ, YTEC, ASTI, CSIQ, GRRF, CTRP, SPWR, SCUN, DSTI, AKNS, NTWK, CY, SOLF, HOKU, CTRP, RMBS, GOLD, RIO, AAUK, SPIR, GMCR, CTDC, FCX, ASGN, BLDP, PRXI, PLCE, GIGM, PCU, VPHM, ICFI, EGLE, URBN, ESPD, KNOL, FWLT, MICC, VRTX, and ACAS.

Premarket losers: KNXA, HANS, ZUMZ, GPCB, THOR, NTES, ARAY, MDR, BID, TMTA, RATE, CSCO, AMKR, TOPT, GIVN, SXCI, IVZ, CRNT, CIEN, AMCN, JNPR, FFIV, and LWSN.

The market has been handed a lot of bad news recently. Although most of it we've seen coming for awhile (dollar, oil prices, subprime, etc.) it hasn't started to really matter until now. It kind of reminds me of the boiling frog story that states that a frog can be boiled alive if the water is heated slowly enough. Rising oil prices, the falling dollar, lukewarm reception to earnings reports, and uncertainty concerning the financials have created a slow moving storm. While hope remains that Bernanke can turn off the stove just in time to cool the water, even though the problems we're facing with oil prices, the dollar, housing market, and both moral and real hazards in the financials are a direct result of the Fed's easy money actions.

Like many of you, I'm confident we'll sort through this mess and get the economy and market back on track. Low valuations and the fact that most of the bad news is already known will help us find a tradeable bottom in due time. Until then, our number one responsibility is to weigh the risks and rewards and make our decisions based on reality than blind hope. The market's perception about these risks are starting to finally change and while it is too early to say whether that will continue for longer than a few weeks, we have to keep our defensive mindset in place for as long as that is the case. The good news is that the market tends to offer the most opportunities when no one wants to look for them.

Dollar Pressure

Good morning. The market is under pressure this morning on news that China may shift its foreign currency stockpiles away from the U.S. dollar. As a result, gold and oil prices are soaring and the dollar is pressing lower. Add this news to some bad bank earnings in Europe, word of an SEC investigation regarding recent bank disclosures, more writedown risk, and disappointing earnings news from General Motors (GM) and the bulls are going to have a rough time.

Premarket gainers: PSPT, DROOY, NILE, AVCA, UFPT, FWLT, PED, JRJC, ONXX, MNTA, WSII, GOLD, ATRO, GERN, HHGP, VPHM, ESLR, GSS, RGLD, XING, SSRI, SLXP, SPWR, BLDP, PAAS, and DSTI.

Premarket losers: NSTK, APKT, LACO, AINV, CCOI, GRMN, AIXG, EFUT, ANW, ESEA, EXM, CSUN, GIGM, NUAN, SIRF, SOHU, TASR, PTR, MPEL, VDSI, CPSL, SEED, BIDU, FSTR, FLR, AUDC, SOHU, CROX, DRYS, YHOO, and FMCN.

After the opening bell, we have reports on Wholesale Inventories at 10:AM, the weekly Petro Status Report at 10:30, Consumer Credit at 3PM and also some Fedspeak with Lacker (8:45) & Mishkin (9). After the closing bell, all eyes and hopes will be on Cisco Systems (CSCO) which has consistently surpassed earnings estimates. Remember to watch 1490 in the S&P in this morning's takedown since just about everyone else will have that front and center on their radar this morning.

Above all else, please be patient with yourself out there today. This tape is frustrating a lot of people and that is especially true for those trying to be far more aggressive than the market conditions will really allow. As they say, there's a time and place for everything and being very aggressive in this tape is going to get you into trouble quickly unless you're using very tight risk management strategies. Pick your spots and positions carefully.

A Forward Looking Animal

Good morning. Some buying interest has developed this morning after the S&P has fallen a little over -3% so far this month.

Strength in overseas markets, a few better-than-expected earnings reports, some positive analyst commentary, and no additional bad news from the financial sector have provided the positive bias. Like usual, we also have rising expectations for another rate cut as losses from the subprime-mortgage defaults grow. Meanwhile, higher oil and gold prices and the falling dollar also remain in focus this morning especially since there's nothing of interest on the economic calendar for today.

Premarket gainers: DIVX, GTXI, FSLR, XFML, EFUT, GSOL, JSDA, AIXG, DROOY, QMAR, ASTI, BSMD, ESLR, HOLX, BLDP, FSTR, CMGID, TONE, FSTR, GLNG, CSUN, SEED, WOLF, DRYS, SOLF, MEOH, SWHC, JASO, CPSL, MPEL, VPHM, CHL, ERIC, MLNM, ORCL, WCG, AMLY, MICC, VSEA, and CROX.

Premarket losers: MNTA, BLTI, CTSH, HLEX, FTEK, WRNC, CBAK, LOCM, WFMI, CCRT, CUTR, ASEI, and AOB.

According to Thomson Financial, 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings and the expectation for 3Q earnings (i.e., actual results combined with expectations for the remaining companies to report) is now -1.6%. In comparison, that is down quite a bit from the expectation of +3.9% as of Oct 1 and +6.2% on July 1. Meanwhile, analysts currently project earnings growth to be in the 9% range over the next three quarters. Either that expectation is too high or the economy is doing a lot better now. Along with rising oil prices, the lower dollar, the subprime debacle, etc. - keep an eye on overall earnings trends even as we move past the earnings reporting season. Without strong earnings, the market will have an uphill battle unless it grows in confidence that the economy has already bottomed out. Remember, the market is a forward looking animal so it looking for reasons to believe that the worst is already behind us.

In the short-term, it's all about perception. Traders will be watching for oversold bounces in the beaten-up areas (especially financials and homebuilders) as a green light to put money to work in expectation for a typical 4Q rally into the close of the year.

Hard to believe that we have only 37 trading days left in 2007. Let's make them count!

Wall Street On Edge

Good morning. As more trouble brews in the financial sector, premarket futures indicate we're going to see some additional weakness at the start of trading. An expected shakeup at Citigroup (C) and news of more writedowns has Wall Street on edge following last week's post FOMC reversal. Uncertainty about how bad the credit crisis really is has made the market quite nervous.

Premarket gainers: WCG, IRBT, BLDP, VOLT, TKLC, OPNT, HGSI, OPXT, FRPT, UTHR, ANSS, HOLX, and NITE.

Premarket losers: NOVC, ORBK, DPTR, C, MER, AAUK, DRYS, VRTX, CROX, CPSL, SINA, ACH, GIGM, FUQI, BHP, KONG, SDTH, MICC, ETFC, BOOM, AOB, SSRX, DRYS, ENDP, SOHU, CISG, CTRP, VCLK, CHL, ESLR, AMZN, NVDA, and RIMM.

At 10AM we have the ISM report to ponder and we also have some Fed speeches by Mishkin (9AM) & Kroszner (1PM) who are scheduled to talk about financial stability & mortgage lending.

On a personal note, we arrived back very late last night. Over the past four days, we logged a little over 3,000 miles by car so while I'm finally back home, my plan is to get some rest and spend some time getting back up to speed. Along with updating several of my favorite stock screens and at last count over 2,000 emails to respond to, I have my work cut out for me.

I appreciate your patience during my absence. It was a true honor and privilege to be able to attend my Aunt Linda's funeral, give the eulogy, and be with family during this difficult time.

Just Another Fed Day

Good morning. Ahead of the 2:15PM Fed decision, premarket futures indicate a positive start to the day. A number of good earnings reports, strength in overseas markets, a much better than expected GDP, and lower employment costs top this morning's headlines. At 10:AM we have a report on construction spending and at 10:30 the weekly EIA Petro report.

Premarket gainers: SIRF, MA, FEED, SEED, PMTC, ICON, SIMO, DRYS, TBSI, EXM, FCGI, GOOG, BIDU, MSTR, PRGN, CSUN, XMSR, DELL, OCNF, EQIX, SPWR, JAV, HA, CMG, NSANY, SPWR, PTR, NOV, RIG, ANDW, CROX, SWHC, RIMM, SOHU, and YHOO.

Premarket losers: BWLD, CKSW, GPCB, FEIC, HURN, WYNN, GRMN, SPPI, FARO, ACTS, LVS, CTV, OMTR, ALGN, PHRM, and SCON.

Like most Fed days, we really have two trading days ahead - the first is the period before the Fed and then the time after. We should also be prepared to see quite a knee jerk reaction no matter what the news even though a cut of 25 basis points and another rate cut later this year is what the majority is expecting. Have a great day!