Fed Day

Good morning. Premarket futures are in positive territory as investors sort through the first quarter GDP, a better than expected ADP private payroll reading, and lots of earnings reports from well-known companies like General Motors (GM), Kellogg (K), & Procter & Gamble (PG). Once again, the dollar is up as commodities (including oil prices) remain under pressure.

Premarket gainers: STAR, ALGN, HS, BWLD, TRLG, ARRS, FLEX, PLT, SIMO, DBTK, TSRA, PNRA, TRW, SLAB, AUDC, GM, DWA, ABK, CMI, FLEX, DSCO, MPWR, REXX, BMRN, DRYS, and TEVA.

Premarket losers: SVVS, FORM, RSTI, HTCH, C, VPRT, ROCM, FEIC, USU, SPWR, JASO, ALU, ARAY, JLL, GRMN, SAP, FEIC, CRAY, ORCL, and ESRX.

At 10:30 we have the petroleum status report and the Fed announcement at 2:15PM. Fed funds futures this morning show an 80% chance that the Fed will cut the funds rate target by 25 basis points to 2.00% and a policy statement that indicates that we are at or near the end of the rate cutting cycle. The rumor mill also suggest the Fed may also announce new creative initiatives to help stimulate the economy today.

With quite a few people expecting a false upside breakout this week, my own upside target is around the 1425 level in the S&P 500 which is also at the key 200 day moving average and the top of the downtrend channel we've been monitoring. After that, much will depend on Friday's employment report. Have a great Fed day!