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Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Bear Survivors (so far)

For a moment, let's dust off and put on our bull suit for a few minutes.

To do so, we must free our mind of recession worries, the current housing crisis, evidence of slowing consumer and earnings, high oil prices, inflationary threats, weak job market, and so on. Instead, let's just assume that everything negative is already priced in now.

If we make that assumption (and I know it is a big one) what then?

If everything bad is priced in, you have to think that it is a great time to put money to work. But, where do you do it?

There are many schools of thought and about as many approaches as you can think of. For example, some will go after the stocks which have been beaten up the most on the theory that they're do for at least a relief rally and that the selling was "unfair." (Indeed, some stocks were sold because they had to be sold, not because anything substantial has changed at the company or its future prospects.) Others, may simply stick with the stocks that have held up considerably well in spite of the bear attack.

My inclination (and preference) is to do the latter.

By focusing on stocks that have technically held their own amid the bear attack, it shows an amount of strength that can usually set up for continued gains. After all, remember, the most bullish thing a stock can do is to move higher or stay strong in weak markets. Sure, there are always exceptions to the rule and, if the bear market takes hold, these stocks will ultimately succumb to the same pressure like the rest. But, these stocks are also the ones that have the fewest amount of motivated sellers who are looking to sell in the rebound which is a good thing. In some cases, they may even have a high level of short interest which will allow them to gain ground in the rallies as well.

After the closing bell today, I decided to eyeball every stock within my stock screen machine to find situations where, in my subjective opinion, the technicals have so far survived the recent bear attack. In other words, each of these stocks have been able to hold strong in the face of pressure.....[READ]

Posted by Kirk at 5:05 PM in Members Only | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |


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