Double-Top Predictions

Those who expected the gains leading up to and following the Fed rate cut rally to be given back quickly are not feeling too good. In fact, given all of the "how stocks must go down in September" banter, those trading by the calendar are probably not very happy either.

Along with all of the bullish soft-landing predictions, at the same time I'm seeing a lot of double-top predictions by the bears. Frankly, it looks like the bears are now reaching for straws and I think if they go ahead and short the daylights out of the market right now, the possibility we'll see a short-squeeze rally to new highs early next month will only increase.

At this point, I'm staying neutral over the next day or so (i.e. refusing to put money to work unless I see a can't miss situation which is not likely) so I can have some sense to how much this is just end-of-the-quarter pumping or something more real. I suspect the former versus the latter, but I'm open minded enough to know that current bullish perception that Bernanke will save us is in full domination. Next month we'll have to shift to earnings mode, which will likely be a far more interesting time for the market.

My plan tomorrow is to update a few screens and, if the weather permits, I'm going to try to squeeze in another round of golf in what is expected to be a good weather day. Admittedly, I've not been doing a good job this week of providing you with many links to look through, but I don't think you're missing very much. There's a lot of noise and speculation out there, but we all need to see how the market responds to earnings in a couple of weeks before we'll have a good idea of what to expect for the rest of the year.